Management

• What are the influencing factors of accidennts?

  • Distraction • Rushing / urgency • Incorrect decision (wrong question in this case) • Wrong mental model / schema • Design of the equipment and warnings
• What are outcomes of accidents?


  • Cost, embarrassment
• What are solutions of accident?

  • Redesign of equipment Warning signs? • Re-training? • Take more care?
• What is safety?

  The condition of being protected from or unlikely to cause danger, risk, or injury.
• Why is safety Important?

  We have to – legislation, Codes of Practice, Standards, company rules, processes, procedures

  • We want to – It is the right thing to do, we are keeping people from harm, Corporate Social Responsibility

  • It makes good business sense
• What is resilience engineering?

  Focus on successes – collect information on what goes right – study work and performance adjustments

  Environments are not stable

  • Recognise performance variability – monitor, control, dampen or amplify, anticipate, absorb, adapt to and/or rapidly recover

  • Four cornerstones from Hollnagel, (anticipating, monitoring, responding, learning)

  • We not be able to observe transient phenomena – unexpected combinations of performance variability – need to be constructed or inferred
• What are the general points of safety?

  Safety is not a matter of common sense

  • Safety is not the only goal .. but of course it is a really important one.

  • Predicting problems is not always possible

  • Safety can be viewed as a science .. there are many methods to study this… and these are not always quantitative

  • Solving problems is also not straightforward
• What is ethics?


  relates to “ethos” or character … sometimes considered to be a customary way to behave in a society. …
• What is professional ethics?

  “Special … standards of conduct governing members of a particular profession because they are members of that profession … are more than mere ordinary morality or common sense”
• Duties of Engineers


  • Duties to society

  • Duties to employers

  • Duties to clients

  • Duties to co-professionals and professional organisations
• What Factors affecting these duties

  • Conflicts between the duties.

  • What is an acceptable degree of risk? Who decides?

  • Visibility of the effects of your work

  • Limits to what engineers (you) can do (e.g. autonomy, loyalty, whistleblowing, personal and professional risks, things we do not know)
• Moral principles and corresponding duties

  • Respect – treat yourself and others with respect befitting the dignity and worth of a person

  • Non-malevolence – avoid harming people • Benevolence – promote well-being of others

  • Integrity – maintain personal standards worthy of a professional

  • Justice – be fair and treat people equally in similar circumstances

  • Utility – choose the action that produces greatest benefit for the greatest number

  • Double effect – make sure there are no foreseeable side effects that are disproportionate to the good of the main effect.
• What is egoism?


  Judging actions on the basis of their effect on the individual performing the action
• What is conventional morality?


  Morality based on the conventions of society
• What is Duty ethics

  Doing one’s moral duty, things that can be applied universally without having a negative effect on society (Some actions are always right or wrong – deontological)
• What is Utilitarian?


  Judging actions based on their ability to produce the greatest benefit for the greatest number of people
• what is virtue ethics?

  Acting in accordance with basic human virtues (e.g. wisdom, justice, temperance, prudence) –
• Advantage and Disadvantage of Egoism?


  Considers the effect on the person acting – this can be at an organisational level. Leads to selfishness, self interest.
• Advantages and disadvantages of Conventional morality

  ……Fits with conventions of society. Takes account of common interests, rather than just the individual. Can be problems in cross cultural situations. Morality within one group can be different and not compatible with that in another. Think about where there are multiple organisations working as part of a contract
• Advantage and disadvantages Utilitarian

  Greatest benefit for the greatest number. You can’t foresee the outcome of every action, so can be hard to apply rules for the greatest benefit for the greatest number.
• Advantages and disadvantages of Virtue ethics

  Assumes that you don’t need specific rules as we have basic virtues that guide us. However, these tend to vary with time and culture and can be difficult to apply consistently
• What is a solution for under-spend?

  ▪ Adding structure on the progress of the programme ▪ This can be done by adding “Milestones”

  ▪ Milestones are significant events such as “design complete” or “machine on order”

  ▪ Often connected to “Deliverables”
• What are examples of milestones?

  The first might be “project specification published” and the last “issue of final report”

  ▪ They are marked on the predicted spend line where they are expected to be completed

  ▪ As the project moves on, we mark them on the actual spend line as they occur
• What is earned value analysis?

  Earned Value Analysis (EVA) is a relatively simple method that allows us to evaluate the progress of the programme against both the original planned schedule and actual cost
• What is key 1 monitoring a programme/project?

  Monitoring (i.e. “watching”) always takes place from the perspective of a particular point in time
• “budgeted cost”


  Effectively introducing a further type of cost

  ▪ Unlike actual costs, budgeted costs are just assumed, they are not really incurred

  ▪ They exist only in the planned budget of the project

  ▪ In EVA, real incurred costs are denoted “actual costs
• The Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS)


  Now we introduce the first of the parameters, or Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), that we require to carry out the Earned Value Analysis (EVA)

  ▪ The first step is to plot out the estimated cumulative spend at each stage.

  ▪ In this case at the end of each month.

  ▪ This is called the “Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled” (BCWS)
• ▪ The BCWP is a measure of how much work has actually been completed, also known as “Earned Value” ▪ If we monitor the work on he basis of the budgeted (expected) costs, then an under-spend indicates that less work than expected has been completed
• The Schedule Variance is defined as SV = BCWP - BCWS ▪ Note SV compares the budgeted (not actual) values, so a negative value indicates that less work has been done than scheduled. ▪ Expressed in money terms (budgeted cost)
• The Cost Variance is defined as CV = BCWP – ACWP

  ▪ Here the actual cost of the work performed is compared with the budgeted cost of that work. Negative values indicate that the work completed has cost more than expected.
• There are two difficulties with the SV and CV: 1. Absolute value: to understand the significance of the variance, it is necessary to know the total value of the programme. 2. It is counterintuitive the negative numbers represent an over-spend
• The Schedule Performance Index (SPI) is defined as SPI = BCWP / BCWS ▪ This compares the Planned (budgeted ) cost and the budgeted cost of the work completed. ▪ An index less than 100% indicates that less work has been completed than expected.
• The Cost Performance Index (CPI) is defined as CPI = BCWP / ACWP ▪ This compares the budgeted cost of the work that has been completed with what it has actually cost ▪ An index less than 100% indicates that the work has cost more than expected.
• Estimated Completion time (ECT) = Planned Programme Duration / SPI
• Estimated Cost of Completion (ECC) = Budget at completion / CP
• What is Hazard


  is a threat, a source of potential harm or danger.
• What is Risk?


  is the possibility that harm or injury might occur when someone or something is exposed to a hazard. • Risks can sometimes be opportunities
• What are responses to risk?

  Avoid – Find an approach that does not contain the risk?

  • Retain – Acceptable, no need to action and accepted as part of normal business

  • Reduce – through introduction of risk controls, or charging a premium to cover financial risks

  • Transfer – through insurance or using a supplier for part of the task / process

  • Exploit – no safety issue evident and possibility for greater return on investment, but needs full knowledge of costs and contingencies that might be needed? Risks may also be Opportunities.
• Risk Management Frameworks and Processes


  Define the problem in its context • Analyse the risk associated with the problem • Examine options to address the risks • Take decisions about the options to implement • Implement decisions • Evaluate the results of the actions
• Risk Appetite or Tolerance

  Averse – avoidance of any risk is an important objective • Minimal – preference for ultra-safe options that are low risk and definitely only have potential for limited reward • Cautious – preference for safe options with low risk and may have limited potential for reward • Open – willing to consider potential options and choose one that is likely to be successful, with an acceptable level of reward and value for money • Hungry – eager to be innovative and choose options with potentially higher rewards in spite of the greater risk.