EQ2 tectonic processes and hazards

• Natural hazard

  A natural event that has the potential to harm people, property and society
• Natural disaster

  The realization or the impact of the natural hazard itself, the harm that has occurred and the damage that has been done
• Risk

  The potential likelihood or probability of a hazard causing harm and damage
• Resilience

  The ability of a community, individuals or a nation to cope with the impact of a hazard
• Pressure and Release (Power) Model

  1. Calculates the overall risk and vulnerability of people to the impacts of a natural hazard

  2. Looks at root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions
• Root causes of vulnerability in Haiti

  • Per capita GDP less than $1200
  • 50% of population under 20 years old
• Dynamic pressures in Haiti

  • Lack of education, training and investment due to debt
  • Rapid population change and urbanization
• Unsafe conditions in Haiti

  • 25% live in extreme poverty
  • 80% of housing in capital is unplanned slums
• Factors affecting vulnerability and resilience

  • Access to education, housing, healthcare, and income
  • Governance (political stability, economic management, etc.)
  • Geographical factors (population density, isolation, organization)
• Moment Magnitude Scale (MMS)

  Measures the energy released by an earthquake, logarithmic scale
• Mercalli Scale

  Measures the intensity of shaking and impacts of an earthquake
• Relationship between earthquake magnitude and death toll is weak, depends on many factors
• Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)

  Measures the eruption height, amount of ash/gas/tephra, and duration of a volcanic eruption
• Hazard profiles

  • Measure characteristics like magnitude, speed, duration, geographical extent, predictability, and frequency to compare different hazards
• Hazards with high magnitude, low frequency present the highest risk
• Rapid onset events with low spatial predictability also present high risk
• Hazard profiles

  • Useful in mapping out the characteristics of a hazard event
  • Look at speed, extent, and frequency
  • Key to show relationships and correlations between different events
• Hazard profiles

  • Asian tsunami in 2004
  • Hawaii earthquake
• Asian tsunami in 2004

  Quite predictable, widespread impact
• Hawaii volcano

  Quite predictable, limited impact
• Hazards with the following characteristics

  • High magnitude, low frequency events
  • Rapid onset events with low spatial predictability
  • Regional aerial extent is important
• Hazard profiles have problems
• Most hazards are very unpredictable, making hazard profile models less effective
• Hazard profiles cannot represent time frame very well
• Hazard profiles are quite vague in the way they treat each hazard
• Impacts of case studies

  • 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan: 16,000 deaths, 6,000 injuries, 130,000 displaced, $235 billion cost, suspended industrial production, coastal subsidence, liquefaction
  • 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland: 500 local families evacuated, roads became impossible, water supply contaminated, $130 million per day for airlines, $5 million per day in tourism losses, ash dissolving into Atlantic causing plankton boom, major jökulhlaup flooding
  • 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China: 69,000 deaths, 370,000 injuries, 5 million homeless, $140 billion cost, communication infrastructure lost, water pollution, fires, gas leaks
  • 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines: 58,000 evacuated, 850 deaths, 1.2 million homeless, bridges and transport destroyed, 650,000 crop losses, volcanic ash destroying soil fertility, global cooling
  • 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami: 250,000 deaths, outbreaks of disease, lack of food supply, $9.4 billion damage, fishing industry and tourism devastated, pollution and debris hazards
  • 2010 Haiti earthquake: 220,000 deaths, 300,000 injuries, 30% added to extreme poverty, $8.5 billion damage, one-third of buildings destroyed, severe water pollution, rubble for years
• Vulnerability factors

  • Inequality: Poverty levels, education, infrastructure quality
  • Governance: Preparedness, planning, response, legislation, debt problems
  • Geographical: Plate boundaries, population density, landscape features
• Japan (Tohoku 2011) had low vulnerability due to high development, good governance, and geographic factors
• Iceland (Eyjafjallajökull 2010) had low vulnerability due to high development, good governance, and geographic factors
• China (Sichuan 2008) had high vulnerability in poverty-stricken areas but good governance limited impacts
• Philippines (Mount Pinatubo 1991) had high vulnerability due to inequality, poverty, and weak governance
• Indian Ocean (2004 tsunami) had high vulnerability due to lack of preparedness, education, and technology
• Haiti (2010 earthquake) had extremely high vulnerability due to poverty, infrastructure, governance, and geographic factors