Voting Behaviour and Media

• Economic factors are always significant to the result of a UK general election as changes in government have always occurred after economic crises. The Tories took power in 1979 after the Winter of Discontent and 2010 after the Global Financial Crisis and Labour took power in 1997 after Black Wednesday in 1992.
• Black Wednesday was when the UK withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992, following a failed attempt to keep its exchange rate above the lower limit required for ERM participation.
• Tony Blair's 'New Labour, New Life for Britain' scheme aimed to cut NHS waiting lists by treating 100,000 extra patients, fast track punishment for persistent young offenders, get 250,000 under 25s off benefits and into work and no rise in income tax rates, cut VAT on heating by 5% and keeping inflation/interest low.
• In the 1992 election, ethnic minority voters were far more likely to vote Labour as were the working class. The Tory dominance could be explained by the decline of turnout from the working class.
• 'New Labour' campaign shifted the party's image towards the centre, focusing on issues like the economy and public services. The campaign appealed to swing voters and shedded their previous 'tax and spend' reputation to play a part in Labour's landslide victory.
• The Conservative party took advantage of the 2008 Financial Crisis. David Cameron's 'Big Society' vision was centred on the need for fiscal responsibility.
• Various different factors can influence the results of a general election, these are; demographic factors, party leadership, campaigning, economic factors, policy, competency of the current government and the media.
• Salient factors are the most important and relevant factors in a situation.
• During the 2010 election campaign, Labour leader Gordon Brown referred to a voter as a bigotted woman. With extensive media coverage, this incident damaged the Labour party's reputation.
• The Tory party's campaign in 2015 was based on their 'Long-Term Economic Plan', emphasizing fiscal policy. This improved their public perception and led to their majority win.
• In the 2019 election, Boris Johnson was projected as a compotent leader who could 'Get Brexit Done' which appealed to voters who were frustrated with the prolonged Brexit process.
• In the 1987 election, Margaret Thatcher was viewed as a leader who revitalized the British economy through deregulation and privatization of state-owned industries and market-oriented policies, leading to the Tories winning a third consecutive election.
• In the 1983 general election, exit polls showed that Labour had a 10% lead over the Conservatives among voters aged 18-24, while the Conservatives had a 22% lead among those aged 65 and over.
• In the 2019 general election, for instance, the Labour Party won more female votes (41%) compared to the Conservative Party (36%), while the Conservative Party won more male votes (45%) compared to Labour (33%).
• In the 1987 general election, the Labour Party won 49% of the working-class vote but only 31% of the middle-class vote. Conversely, the Conservative Party won 36% of the working-class vote and 50% of the middle-class vote.
• In the 2019 general election, according to YouGov, 57% of voters with a degree voted for parties that supported remaining in the EU, whereas 68% of those with no formal qualifications voted for parties supporting Brexit.
• Only 44% of 18-24 year olds voted in the 2010 election, and historically younger votes are more left-leaning costing Labour the election.
• Nick Clegg received positive media attention during and after the 2010 Television debates, while not an outright endorsement, Newspapers like The Guardian and The Independent praised his performance. The increased visibility and positive coverage of Clegg contributed to the Liberal Democrats' improved performance and their role in the subsequent coalition government.
• Tony Blair had a large chunk of support from minority voters in 1997 as 70% of non-white voters voted Labour.
• The Tories had more support from the middle-class than working-class in the 1997 election with 59% of middle-class voting and 34% of working-class voting for them.
• Since 1974, the Sun have backed the winning party and continued to do so in 1992 when on the day of the election, The Sun headline read "if Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights".
• After the 1979 election, Thatcher was viewed as a one-term Prime Minister but won with a 143 majority in the 1983 election after leaping to defence of the Falklands in the war, boosting her popularity.
• The 3-day working week as part of negotiations with trade unions and the Winter of Discontent stacked the odds against Callaghan's Labour party in 1979.
• The Brexit party refused to contest Tory seats in election, meant 'leave' voters were predominantly able to vote Tory whilst 'remain' voters were split between Labour, the Lib Dems, Greens, the SNP, Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru. As Brexit was a salient issue of the election, this helped the Tories win a landslide majority.
• As Brexit was a salient issue in the 2019 election, Boris Johnson was able to run his 'Get Brexit Done' campaign to be able to win seats in the Red Wall - historical Labour-voting constituencies that voted 'leave'.
• The Poll Tax is an example that shows policy is less important to election results. Thatcher's Poll Tax (1990-92) made the Conservatives unpopular and led to her resignation as John Major took over as Tory leader, yet the Tories gained media endorsement and won against Kinnock's Labour in 1992.
• Social care was a salient issue in the 2017 election, the Conservative Party proposed a policy on social care that was dubbed the "Dementia Tax" by critics, it led to significant costs for elderly voters who would have to pay for their care with the value of their homes. The negative reaction to this policy contributed to the Conservatives losing their majority in the 2017 general election.
• Newspapers such as The Sun and The Daily Mail endorsed Thatcher's leadership and highlighted her successful handling of the Falklands War. Their support contributed to the party's electoral success as the Falklands was a salient issue.
• During the 2019 general election, newspapers like The Sun and The Daily Mail strongly supported the Conservative Party and its leader, Boris Johnson. These newspapers backed Johnson's message of "Get Brexit Done" and portrayed him as a decisive leader.
• In 1983, the SDP-Liberal alliance was formed and won 25% of the vote but only 23 seats in Parliament. This really cost the Labour party as Michael Foot had under 30% of the vote.
• Since the repeal of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act in 2022, the government can once again control the timing of an election.