Voting Behavior and the Media

• Social Class

  • Class dealignment; tendency for fewer people to define themselves by their class.
  • Rise of centrist policies; Liberal Democrats after the 1980s have adopted moderate centrist policies to appeal to a broad spectrum of society.
  • Rise in other influences on voter behaviour such as valence - replacing social class.
  • Rise of instrumental voting; 64% of DE social class voted for Brexit because it would benefit them, not purely because of their social class.
  • In 2017; 59% of the DE social class voted for Labour.
  • In 2017; 43% of the AB social class voted Conservative.
• gender

  • Gender can be discounted as a motivating factor in voting.
  • In 1992, 18% of both men and women voted Liberal Democrat.
  • Slight tendency for women to vote for Labour; in 2017, 7% more women voted Labour.
  • In 1983; 46% of women voted Conservative for Thatcher - versus 43% of men.
• age

  • Younger people do not wish to be seen as 'conservative'.
  • Younger people may have less outward responsibilities; Conservatives seen as the party of families and property ownership.
  • Young may prefer more radical and progressive politics; in 2015 400% more Green voters aged 18-24 compared with those over 65.
  • 1997 18-24 27% conservative
  • 2019 18-24 56% Labour
• Ethnicity

  • Think-tank, British Future, suggests that a majority of Sikhs and Hindus now support Conservative Party; this is due to their increased economic status as business owners.
  • Black people and Muslims still tend to vote for Labour.
  • Well-established and prosperous groups tend to vote for the Conservatives regardless of their ethnic origin.
  • In 2017, 65% of BAME voted for Labour compared with 21% for the Conservatives.
  • 1997 70% Labour
• Impact of region on voting

  • In 2015: 45% of voters in the South of England voted Conservative versus 25% voting Labour.
  • In 2017: 55% of Londoners voted for Labour versus just 33% for the Conservatives.
• • 1983 election saw 73% turnout.
  • 2001 election saw 59% turnout.
  • 2017 election saw 69% turnout.
• • How 'close' the election seems; if voters believe the election is close, they believe their vote will matter and so are more likely to vote - this was seen in the 79% turnout at the February 1974 election between Harold Wilson and Edward Heath.
  • If elections are 'foregone' conclusions; voters assumed Labour would win in 2001 due to 'hapathy' so were less likely to vote.
  • Importance of an election's outcome.
• • Widespread disillusionment among the young; increased tuition fees made young voters feel helpless about politics.
  • The young have alternative ways of political participation; e-petitions, direct action, and social media campaigns.
  • Younger voters more interested in single-issue campaigns.
• • Since 2014; Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens have reported a rise in youth membership.
  • Estimated that 75% of Scottish 16-17 year olds voted in the 2014 Independence Referendum.
  • In 2017, 54% of 18-24 year olds voted - perhaps due to energy created by Labour.
• • Younger voters are more reluctant to vote.
  • In 2005, only 37% of 18-24 year olds actually voted compared with over 70% of the oldest age groups.
  • However, in 2017; Labour's vote share rose by 10% due to an increase in young voters.
• • Members of AB social class are much more likely to vote than members of DE social class.
  • In 2015 - 75% of AB voters voted compared with 57% of DE voters.
• Black Wednesday, or the 1992 sterling crisis, was a financial crisis that occurred on 16 September 1992 when the UK Government was forced to withdraw sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism
• • What is valence?
  • Valence refers to a party's image in the eyes of voters.
  • Economic competence; in 2010, Labour were defeated due to their handling of the 2008 Financial Crisis; in 2016, new Chancellor Philip Hammond pledged to be 'pragmatic'.
  • Party unity; John Major inherited a disunited party over Europe.
  • Leadership; voters desire strong leaders - Major seen as weak, Blair said 'I lead my Party, he follows his'.
• • Based on 'issue voting'; some voters are not committed to one party and will switch based on key issues.
  • Rational choice voters view some issues as more salient than others.
  • In the 2015 General Election, 30% of voters made their decision based on Asylum and Immigration policies.
  • Altruistic voters will vote for a Party that is good for society as a whole; for instance, Richard Branson supported New Labour in 1997 even though he is a millionaire.
  • Instrumental voters will vote selfishly; voters on benefits will usually vote for Labour.
• • Image of Party Leaders is important in deciding how voters vote; are party leaders seen as decisive? Do they represent Britain well abroad? Do they have a united government?
  • Blair benefited from strong leadership image.
  • Brown in 2010 was hurt by his poor image as a party leader, based on negative media portrayals and his indecisiveness.
  • Evidence suggests that party leaders are not as important as thought; in 1979, James Callaghan had 20% higher popularity polls but still lost to Thatcher.
• • Estimated that in the 2015 General Election, over 77 constituencies were impacted by tactical voting.
  • In 2010, it was estimated that 10% of voters chose their second preference.
• • Public Opinion Polls
  • In 2015; opinion polls suggested a hung parliament with a predicted 33% of the vote for Labour and the Conservatives.
  • The prospect of a Labour-SNP coalition scared English voters into voting for the Conservatives.
  • Many opinion polls are inaccurate; polls before the 2017 election saw the Conservatives given leads of 5% to 12% but they only received 2% more than Labour in the Election.
• • Social Media
  • Social media is usually used by the youth; in 2017, the Jeremy Corbyn Snapchat filter was used by 9 million users.
  • Social media can create media echo chambers; in 2015, the Momentum faction of Labour Party radicalised many young people using Twitter and Instagram.
  • Can be questioned because if younger voters tend to use it, then the lack of voter turnout amongst youth can negate it's real impact.
  • However; increase in older people using Facebook.
• • The Press
  • Following the 1992 election, the Sun declared 'It's the Sun wot won it'.
  • Newspapers can run relentless political smear campaigns against party leaders; in the 1980s and 1990s, the Sun constantly attacked Neil Kinnock - even criticising his 1987 manifesto by saying 'Will the last one to leave please turn off the lights?.
  • At the 2017 election, 59% of The Sun readers voted Conservative.
  • At the 2017 election, 73% of The Guardian readers voted Labour.
  • Impact of press not substantial; at Leveson Inquiry, Murdoch admitted that newspapers do not change voter behaviour.
  • Echo chamber!
• • Broadcasting Media
  • No intentional influence on voter behaviour; all UK broadcasting media have to be impartial.
  • Televised debates overseen by Electoral Commission; in 2010 Nick Clegg performed amazingly in TV debates but saw the Liberal Democrat vote share decline.
• • 1979 Election
  • Conservatives won 339 seats and 43.9% of the votes.
  • Labour won 269 seats and 36.9% of the votes.
  • Demographic issues; sharp decline in number of voters viewing themselves as working class.
  • Party leaders; Callaghan viewed as reliable versus Thatcher who was nicknamed 'milk-snatcher'.
  • Winter of Discontent.
  • High inflation, high unemployment, large strikes.
• • 1997 General Election
  • Labour won 418 seats and 43.2% of the vote.
  • Conservatives won 165 seats and 30% of the vote.
  • Demographic issues; Blair adopted a centrist policy to woo middle-class voters via Third Way politics.
  • Valence; Conservative Party in power for 18 years seen as tired and lacking energy.
  • Party leaders; Blair seen as more attractive than Major.
  • Conservatives disunited over Maastrict Treaty.
  • NHS and education were salient issues.
  • Labour promised to be financially moderate.
• • 2015 General Election
  • Conservatives won 330 seats and 36.9% of the votes.
  • Labour won 232 seats and 30.4% of the votes.
  • Demographics; Labour's working-class vote was captured by UKIP; SNP dominated Scotland; Conservatives dominated South of England.
  • Valence; legacy of 2008 Financial Crisis still haunted Labour; Liberal Democrats blamed for tuition fees; Conservatives split over Europe.
  • Party leaders played little role in the outcome.
  • Estimated that 2 million non-voters voted, many for UKIP.
  • Conservatives won based on support for Brexit Referendum.
• 2017 40-50% of the UK belonged to a voluntary organisation
• 2023 - 500,000 marched for Palestine
• Police crime and sentencing act
• 77% of junior doctors on strike in 2023
• Nick clegg performed well in TV deabtes
• In 2019, 1/3 of voters were undecided until polling day
• 2017 Conservatives spent 2 million on facebook
• jeremy corbyn snapchat filter 9 million views
• 82% of households have internet acsess
• • For example, Tony Blair hired a press secretary, Alastair Campbell, to ensure himself and the Labour Party were portrayed in the best possible light by the media during his time as PM.
• • The Daily Telegraph often supports the Conservatives and The Guardian often supports Labour.
• Opinion polls have been inaccurate in past general elections, such as 2015 when it failed to predict that the Conservatives would win an overall majority.
• ‘shy Tories’ who vote for the Conservatives but do not publicly admit to supporting them and the ‘boomerang effect’