probability (p) is a numerical measure of the likelihood that certain events will occur. the accepted level of probability in psychology is 0.05 (a significance level of 5%). this is the level at which the researcher decides to accept the alternative hypothesis or not. if the alternative hypothesis is accepted, there is less than 5% chance that the null hypothesis is true, i.e. a probability of 0.05 that there was no real effect in the population from which the sample was drawn.