Lecture 4

• Kierkegaard: '"Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards."'
• Hindsight


  Trying to understand why something happened by speculating about it 'after the fact'
• People tend to be overconfident in how likely it is that they would have correctly predicted something when they don't think about the question until after they already know the answer
• Hindsight bias


  Thinking you would have predicted an outcome you already know
• Relying on hindsight reasoning tends to result in many contradictions because there are often many possible explanations for any given behaviour/situation
• Hindsight reasoning


  • If a long distance relationship is successful, can say 'absence makes the heart grow fonder'... if it isn't, can say 'out of sight out of mind'
• Relying on hindsight reasoning is particularly problematic for building theories and models about behaviour, as it is not clear how to evaluate accuracy of hindsight reasoning
• Scientific method


  An alternative to hindsight for understanding behaviour, placing emphasis on prediction, control and theory building
• Psychology has been historically slow to adopt the scientific method, which may in part relate to the intangible nature of mental processes
• Principles of the scientific method

  • Curiosity (why does something happen?)
  • Skepticism (what is the evidence for a claim?)
  • Open-mindedness (are there other explanations?)
• Steps in the scientific method

  1. Identify question of interest

  2. Gather information and formulate hypothesis (specific prediction)

  3. Test hypothesis by conducting research

  4. Analyze data, draw tentative conclusions, report findings

  5. Build a body of knowledge, build theory (formal statement)
• Hypothesis


  A tentative explanation or prediction about some phenomenon, often taking the form of an 'If-Then' statement
• Hypotheses must be testable (i.e. falsifiable): this means it must be possible to collect evidence that would logically support the claim that the hypothesis is incorrect
• Theories


  • Broader than any one single prediction
  • Dynamic (new knowledge/theories are constantly replacing older ones)
  • Change is generally incremental but paradigm shifts do occur
• Properties of good theories

  • Incorporates existing facts and observations within a single broader framework
  • Are testable (falsifiable)
  • Have prediction(s) supported by research
  • Conform to the law of parsimony (also known as Occam's razor)
  • Generate principles that can be applied to new situations
• Characteristics of non-scientific theories

  • Make no predictions
  • Untestable
  • Cannot be falsified
• Variable


  Any characteristic or factor that can vary
• Examples of common categories of variables used in psychological research

  • Overt Behaviour
  • Physiological Measures
  • Psychological Tests
• Operational definition


  Defining a concept or variable in terms of the specific procedures used to produce or measure it
• There are many ways to operationalize most complex behaviours and psychological processes, typically no one 'right' way
• Operationalizing stress


  • Using heart rate, perspiration, cortisol level, self-report
  • Considering variables related to biological, psychological, and social levels of analysis
  • Considering different perspectives (e.g. behaviourist, cognitive)