TCWD FINALS

• Shanghai will allow only 800k more to live there Chinese city will cap its permanent population at 25m by John Johnson
• Demography


  The scientific study of the human population
• The "big three" of demography

  • Birth
  • Death
  • Migration
• The Demographic Transition

  1. Before: Life was short, births were many, growth was slow and the population was young

  2. During: First mortality and then fertility declined, causing population growth rates first to accelerate and then to slow again, moving toward low fertility, long life, and an old population

  
• The transition began around 1800 with declining mortality in Europe. It has now spread to all parts of the world and is projected to be completed by 2100
• Since 1800, the global population size has already increased by a factor of six, and by 2100 will have risen by a factor of ten
• There will then be 50 times as many elders, but only 5 times as many children; thus, the ratio of elders to children will have risen by a factor of 10. The length of life, which has already more than doubled, will have tripled, while births per woman will have dropped from 6 to 2
• In 1800, women spent about 70% of their adult years bearing and rearing young children, but that fraction has decreased in many parts of the world to only about 14%, due to lower fertility and longer life
• Mortality Decline


  1. Reductions in contagious and infectious diseases by air or water

  2. Improved personal hygiene as income rose and the germ theory of diseases became more widely known and accepted

  3. Improvement in nutrition and famine mortality was reduced by improvements in storage and transportation

  4. Secular increases in incomes led to improved nutrition in childhood and throughout life

  5. Reductions in chronic and degenerative diseases, notably heart disease and cancer
• Between 1890 and 1920, marital fertility began to decline in most European provinces, with a median decline of about 40 percent from 1870 to 1930

  
• Some of the improvement in child survival is itself a response to parental decisions to invest more in the health and welfare of a smaller number of children
• Bearing and rearing children is time intensive. Since women have had primary responsibility for childbearing and rearing, variations in the productivity of women has been particularly important
• Parents with higher incomes choose to devote more resources to each child, and since this raises the cost of each child, it also leads to fewer children
• Today, the median individual lives in a country with a total fertility rate of 2.3— barely above the 2.1 fertility rate of the United States—and a median life expectancy at birth of 68 years compared to 77 years for the United States

  
• Migration


  Crossing the boundary of a political or administrative unit for a certain minimum period
• Types of international migrants

  • Temporary labor migrants
  • Highly-skilled and business migrants
  • Irregular migrants
  • Refugees
  • Asylum seekers
  • Forced migration
  • Family members
  • Return migrants
• Causes of migration


  • Disparity in levels of income
  • Employment
  • Social well-being
  • Differences in demographic patterns with regard to fertility, mortality, age structure, and labor-force growth

  
• Migration decisions are made not just by individuals, they often represent family strategies to maximize income and survival chances
• Effects of migration


  • Brain drain
  • Benefits for destination country: flexible, lower cost labor
  • Remittances
  • Abuse of migrants
  • Re-integration
• The United Nations figures show that the global migrant stock (the number of people resident in a place outside their country of birth) grew from 75 million in 1965 to 120 million in 1990
• International migrants remain a fairly small minority. Internal migration, conversely, is much larger
• The significance of migration as a major factor in societal change lies in the fact that it is concentrated in certain countries and regions
• Global Goals for Sustainable Development

  • No Poverty
  • No hunger
  • Good health
  • Quality education
  • Gender equality
  • Clean water and sanitation
  • Renewable energy
  • Good jobs and economic growth
  • Innovation and infrastructure
  • Reduced inequalities
  • Sustainable cities and communities
  • Responsible consumption
  • Climate action
  • Life below water
  • Life on land
  • Peace and Justice
  • Partnerships for the goals
• Sustainable Development


  Economic development is conducted without the depletion of natural resources. Sustainable development (SD) is defined in the Brundtland Report as "development that meets the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."
• Configuring the 17 Sustainable Development Goals

  • End Poverty
  • End Hunger
  • Well-Being
  • Quality Education
  • Gender Equality
  • Water and Sanitation for All
  • Affordable and Sustainable Energy
  • Decent Work for All
  • Technology to Benefit All
  • Reduce Inequality
  • Safe Cities and Communities
  • Responsible Consumption by All
  • Stop Climate Change
  • Protect the Ocean
  • Take Care of the Earth
  • Live in Peace
  • Mechanism and Partnership to Reach the Goals
• Sustainable development


  Economic development conducted without the depletion of natural resources
• Sustainable development is defined in the Brundtland Report as "development that meets the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."
• Global goals for sustainable development

  • End poverty
  • End hunger
  • Good health
  • Quality education
  • Gender equality
  • Clean water and sanitation
  • Renewable energy
  • Good jobs and economic growth
  • Innovation and infrastructure
  • Reduced inequalities
  • Sustainable cities and communities
  • Responsible consumption
  • Climate action
  • Protect the ocean
  • Take care of the earth
  • Live in peace
  • Partnerships for the goals
• There was a strong impression that the global economy became a sphere of extreme uncertainty and risk during the first decade of the twenty-first century.
• There was a dimension of crisis that began in 2007. It was not like another business cycle setback. It was a serious breakdown that challenged the foundations of modern approaches to the creation of welfare.
• Collapsing financial markets, rising unemployment, deeper inequalities, a shrinking middle class, extreme indebtedness, and the inability of governments to force through reforms were just some of the symptoms of crisis around the globe.
• The challenges of climate change and the unavailability of resources that were important in the development of technologies to keep the economy growing continued to surface.
• Stability in sustainable development


  The ability of a society or system to maintain a state of balance or equilibrium over time, including economic, social, and environmental stability
• Sustainability


  Considers the long-term capacities of a system to exist, not its short-term resistance to change
• The Brundtland Report (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987) said that the 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs' deserves the level of sustainability.
• Technology became a fantastic escape from the sustainability dilemma.
• The Solow-Swan model from the 1950s saw the only chance for innovations.
• New ideas in technology and organization made it possible to overtake the steady state of zero growth and induce development without increasing resources.
• Paul Romer and Rober Lucas in the 1980s proposed a new theory called the New Growth Theory, where endogenous factors like human capital and education were recognized as crucial for growth and their application was free from the state of classical resources.
• In the 19th century, the issues of sustainability were considered mainly social conditions in early industrial capitalism.