Media: Short term factors affecting vote behviour

• Opinion Polls


  Ask sample of people how vote
• Opinion polls


  Parties take notes of polling firms findings, and conduct own pols
• Opinion polls


  Been feature since 1940 when carried out by Gallup and it was accurate
• Opinion polls


  2017, polls not accurate - showed Cons in lead by 5% and 12% but they actually barely 2% ahead of Labour and there was hung parliament

  Every poll put Cons being first which was right

  Polls accurate about Cons and Lib Dem shares

  All got Lab wrong

  Overestimated UKIP and SNP
• Opinion Polls


  2015 election, polls predicted close race

  Allowed Cons to warn against Labour-SNP coalition

  Increased likelihood of Miliband becoming PM made Cons voters turnout
• Opinion polls


  Controversial as not accurate
• Opinion Polls


  Shy Tories - people who intended to vote Cons but didnt want to say in public as Cons seen as uncaring

  (Explanation to Major)
• Opinion polls


  In 1992 failed to predict Jon Major 21 seat victory

  Most predicted hug parliament/ Labour victory
• Opinion polls


  Polling firms adjusted way pick sample and use phone polls now
• Opinion polls


  Boomerang effect - as polls shown Labour in lead early in campaign caused voters who didnt want Labour to turnout

  (explain why didnt predict Major)
• Television


  News channel al held leadership debates overseen by electoral commission

  2010, 9.6 million watch

  2015 7 mil watch
• TV


  Survey found that 62% people said TV strongest influence in helping them form opinion in run up to 2015 election

  25% sed newspaper
• TV


  2017 Theresa May decision not to attend TV debates made her weak as she cudn't reply to people mockery of her
• TV


  Still dominates media coverage of election

  Most important way voters obtain political info
• TV


  Relentless negative coverage of Corbyn's personality and policies

  Stopped him becoming established with people
• TV


  Not clear leadership debates have any impact on voters

  E.g. Clegg had a boost in polls due to debate performance but didnt matter as only got 23% of vote

  Cudve helped in coalition govt
• TV


  2010 decision to give Clegg same platform as Brown and Cameron boosted Lib Dem platform esp when both sed I agree with Nick

  Boosted Lib Dem campaign
• Press


  Leaders more conscience of projecting favourable media image

  Seek control of news agenda
• Press


  Tony Blair spin doctor Alistair Campbell

  Portray good image of Blair
• Press

  Switch sides depending on their own interests and winning govt
• Press


  E.g. Sun switched to Con - Thatcher sed shell be harder on trade unions

  In line with business interest
• Press


  E.g. 1997 switched to Lab to support Blair as he winning party
• Press


  Newspapers reinforce existing views

  e.g. Murdoch sed reflect readers opinions and dont swing votes

  e.g. 2007 election many came out against SNP but they still won
• Press


  2017, newspapers came out against Corbyn but his vote increased by 9.6%
• Press

  SUN WOT WON IT, after Sun only predicted Majors suprise victory
• Press


  Correlation between newspaper preferences and readers vote
• Press


  Most newspapers support Cons

  2 largest tabloids, Sun and Daily Mail support Cons
• Press


  Newspapers highly politiscised
• Social Media


  2015 general election Cons won suprise victory after spending £1.5 mil on social media
• Social Media


  Female politicians report death threats among others
• Social Media


  Rise of fake news
• Social Media


  Blamed for increase in political polarisation

  Political news/views we see reinforce existing views

  Less open to new ideas
• Social Media


  Bubbles can be misleading

  2015, #milifandom gave inaccurate representation of leaders popularity
• Social Media


  2016 Vote Leave campaign success due to small emotive messages
• Social Media


  Allow people to talk about issues that matter to them

  Twitter aided Arab Spring wave of pro-democracy protests that swept Middle East and North Africa 2010-2012
• Social Media


  Pressure grps use clicktivism to get supporters

  Change.org allow people to grow own campaign
• Social Media


  Trump controversial tweets won him free TV coverage

  Overturned of previous assumptions of need for carefully crafted and moderate public image
• Social Media


  Obama used social media to propel him to first victory in 2008
• Social Media


  Allows populist leaders to bypass hostile traditional media
• Social Media


  Used to talk directly to people