Lesson 11

• Malthus


  First population theorist that perceived population growth pessimistically
• An Essay on the Principle of Population was written


  1798
• In 1798, there was no concept of machineries and no mass production yet
• Malthus' view


  Increase in population will lead society to doom
• Malthus believes that society can never be perfected because production (of resource) and reproduction, as powers of nature, is difficult to equalize</b>
• Perfection


  Living at ease, achieving happiness, experiencing comparative leisure, and having no feelings of anxiety regarding subsistence
• Malthus' Basic Arguments/Postulates


  • Passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state
  • Food is necessary to the existence of men
• We can never balance both production and reproduction, that's why we can never achieve perfection
• Power of the population

  Indefinitely greater than the power of the earth to produce subsistence for men
• Population growth


  Increases in geometric ratio
• Subsistence growth

  Increases in arithmetic ratio
• Arithmetic Growth


  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
• Geometric Growth


  • 2
  • 4
  • 8
  • 16
• How to balance production and reproduction

  • Positive Checks: Misery (Do not live too long! Die early!)
  • Positive Checks: Vice (Availing prostitution and Use of Birth Control)
  • Preventive Checks: Virtues (Celibacy, Late Marriage, Abstinence)
• Poor Laws of England

  Introduced to combat widespread poverty and provide relief to the poor, similar to PH 4 P's
• Malthus is against the Poor Laws of England. He believed that it spreads more evil and the poor should feel pain
• The Poor Laws of England are not a solution because it promotes dependency and it encourages poor men to marry and procreate
• Continuous increase in the population lowers the price of labor (the poor is desperate for jobs)
• Criticisms of Malthus' theory

  • Population has not increased as rapidly as predicted by Malthus
  • Production has increased tremendously because of the rapid advances in technology
  • Living standards of the people have risen instead of falling as was predicted by Malthus
• Demographic Transition Theory (DTT)


  Describes four stages of population growth, following patterns that connect birth and death rates with stages of development
• Stage 1: Pre-Industrial


  • Characterized by high birth rates, and high fluctuating death rates
  • Population growth was kept low by Malthusian "positive" checks
  • Family planning and contraception were virtually non-existent
  • Majority of deaths are concentrated in the first 5–10 years of life
• Stage 2: Early Industrial


  • Death rates fall, but birth rates remain high
  • Decline in death rate due to improvements in food supply and public health
• Stage 3: Late Industrial


  • Birth rates start to decline due to enhanced economic conditions, expansion in women's status and education, and access to contraception
• Stage 4: Post-Industrial


  • Low birth and death rates, leading to total population stability
  • Death rates are low due to lower rates of diseases and higher production of food
  • Birth rates are low due to women having more opportunities
• Stage 5: Post-Post Industrialization


  • Fertility rates are now beginning to increase in many countries with very high levels of development
• Epidemiological Transition Theory (ETT)


  Accounts for the replacement of infectious diseases by chronic diseases over time due to increased life span as a result of improved health care and disease prevention
• ETT focuses on diseases, while DTT focuses on birth and death
• Stage 1: Pre-Industrial (The Age of Pestilence and Famine)


  • Mortality is high and fluctuating, precluding sustained population growth, with low and variable life expectancy
  • Characterized by an increase in infectious diseases, malnutrition and famine
• The Black Plague is thought to have originated in the dry plains of Central Asia, and is estimated to have reduced the world population from an estimated 450 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century
• Symptoms of the Black Plague

  • Buboes: painful swellings in the thighs, neck, groin or armpits
  • Gangrene: condition that occurs when body tissue dies
• The Black Plague was called the "Beautiful Disease" because the first indication that someone had it was that they would become rosy-cheeked
• Stage 2: Early Industrial (The Age of Receding Pandemics)


  • Mortality progressively declines, with the rate of decline accelerating as epidemic peaks decrease in frequency
  • Average life expectancy increases steadily from about 30 to 50 years
• Stage 3: Late Industrial (The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases)


  • Mortality continues to decline and eventually approaches stability at a relatively low level
  • Mortality is increasingly related to degenerative diseases, cardiovascular disease, cancer, violence, accidents, and substance abuse
• Degenerative Diseases


  The result of a continuous process based on degenerative cell changes, affecting tissues or organs, which will increasingly deteriorate over time
• Degenerative Diseases


  • Alzheimer's disease, Osteoporosis, and Parkinson's disease
• Man-Made Diseases


  Changes in diet, particularly increases in the consumption of sucrose, high fructose corn syrup, and salt, have led to these diseases
• Man-Made Diseases


  • Obesity, Diabetes, and Hypertension
• Stage 4: Post Industrial (The Age of Hybristic Diseases)

  • Emerging diseases become increasingly lethal due to antibiotic resistance
  • New pathogens and mutations allow old pathogens to overcome human immunity
• Hybristic Diseases


  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
  • Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection
• Stage 5: Post-Post Industrialization (The Age of Aspired Quality of Life with Persistent Inequalities)


  • Birth rate declines as lifespan is extended, leading to an age-balanced population
  • Socioeconomic, ethnic, and gender inequalities continue to manifest differences in mortality and fertility