US democracy and participation

• electoral systems in the USA

  the constitution establishes, although does not name the electoral college as a method for electing the president every 4 years
• who were states to appoint to vote for the president on their behalf

  states were to appoint electors who would vote for the president on behalf of that state - together these electors form the electoral college and the president would be whoever gained a majority of votes
• who decides how the elections would work in practise

  the constitution left congress and the states to decide how these elections work in practise
• what date did congress allocate national election day

  in 1845 congress allocated national election day as the first tuesday after the first monday in November but the election is effectively 50 state - run elections rather than one national election
• the process for presidential election

  other than election day there is little fixed timing in the presidential election process - this process has developed into an elaborate lengthy and expensive event that begins years before the term for the current president has expired
• invisible primary 


  the time between a candidate formally announcing their intention to run for presidential office and the first official primary or caucus
• invisible primary 


  there is no official beginning to the invisible primary

  it is the period during which potential candidates for a party compete with each other to attract money and endorsements for their campaign

  the competition at this point is intraparty meaning it is a competition of candidates within a party
• why are invisible primaries important

  the growth of the media and social media, and the importance of money in elections have made this an increasingly important part of the presidential campaign
• example of candidates during the election process 2016

  in 2016, 17 candidates aimed to be the presidential nominee of the republican party

  of these, 5 withdrew during the invisible primary had ever taken place

  a further 7 withdrew in the 20 days following the first primary on 1st february 2016
• example of candidates during the election process 2020

  in 2020 a record of 29 candidates ran to be the democratic nominee with 11 dropping out before the primaries and not appearing on ballot and 10 dropping out during the primaries
• name recognition 


  candidates have to use the invisible primary to attract public attention

  this means gaining name recognition, being a candidate whose name is recognised by voters as a viable candidate

  the success of this is often judged by the polls and the lack of good polling can lead to a candidate withdrawing
• how do candidates raise their profile

  candidates can raise their profile through a range of big events, starting with the announcement of their candidacy, which is often a big occasion drawing media attention that can help them gain recognition
• candidacy media examples 


  jeb bush, for example, announced his candidacy to great fanfare in 2015

  however he suffered bruising criticism from donald trump during the invisible primary, being attacked by trump on twitter more than all of the other republican candidates combined

  he withdrew from the race february 20th 2016
• televised debates between candidates of the same party and examples 


  there are also televised debates between candidates of the same party giving them a platform to advance their views and policies while highlighting flaws in other candidatesin 2020 the democrats had 11 debatesthe first debate had 20 candidates and had to be split into 2 debates of 10by the final debate only 2 candidates remained; biden and sanders
• grassroots 


  an invisible primary also allows candidates to raise money

  this might be donations directly from the voters themselves which candidates call targeting the grassroots
• Political Action Committee (PAC)


  a group that can raise money to support a candidate in an election donating a maximum of 5000 dollars to their campaign directly
• Super PAC's 


  a group that can raise and send unlimited amounts of money to support or oppose a candidate but which is not allowed to donate directly to a campaign or coordinate with a campaign
• why is attracting money early important

  attracting this money early is important for a candidate to be able to survive the long presidential campaign
• how much did the 2020 presidential election cost

  the rising cos of presidential election means the invisible primary season is increasingly important - the 2020 presidential election cost nearly 6 billion dollars
• traditional wisdom


  traditional wisdom suggests that the person who raises the most money is most likely to win in an election
• traditional wisdom example 2016 


  hilary clinton raised more money than trump in the 2016 election estimates suggest that trump benefitted from nearly 2 billion dollars worth of free media attention due to his controversial comments while clinton gained just 746 million dollars
• traditional wisdom 2020


  michael bloomberg spent more than joe biden, spending 1,096 million dollars and yet failed to have any significant successnonetheless biden did outspend trump, his closest rivalry on his way to victory
• the importance of incumbency in a presidential election

  for any candidate running in an election there is a considerable advantage if they are the current president running for re - election (the incumbent)
• incumbent benefits of considerable name recognition 


  having been the incumbent for a number of years the incumbent has the benefit of considerable name recognitionthis can make it easier for them to attract funding far earlier than their competitors
• incumbents policy success 


  incumbents can also demonstrate policy successes during their first term to try to broaden their appeal and show the ability to govern, something which competitors may struggle to do
• incumbents fundraising advantage example

  incumbents also have a fundraising advantagein 2012, the incumbent obamas ability to raise campaign funds earlier gave him a notable financial advantage over romney who would ultimately be his republican competitor2020 however was rather unique as both biden and trump had extensive name recognition
• incumbent media coverage - obama 


  the incumbent president can dominate media coverage in a way that other candidates cannot and take advantage of it particularly in national situationsin 2012 in the final few weeks of the election, hurricane sandy hit the east coast of the usa - the media coverage of this disaster gave obama a huge advantage - he could act 'presidentially'he toured disaster hit areas and was photographed talking to those affected
• what will the incumbent not face

  it is likely that the incumbent will not face a primary challengerthis means that they do not have to spend time exposing any divisions within their own party to win the nominationthis creates a more united party going into the election and reduces the amount of money a candidate must spend in the early stages of the election, giving them a large 'war chest' to spend later on
• incumbents are held to higher standards example 


  the experience on the campaign trail can mean they are held to higher standardsin the 2012 presidential debates obama was criticised for appearing tired and his performance being unconvincingly compared with his performance being unconvincingly compared with his performance in 2008 while romneys performance was not only praised but also these were his first debates, meaning he was free of any such comparison
• primaries and caucuses 


  in order to choose a single presidential candidate for each party, primaries and caucuses are held across the countrythese are organised by individual parties within each state between february and june of the election yearthis means there are 50 democratic primaries and caucuses each election year plus those of any third partiesin a primary or caucus the public vote for the presidential candidate they prefer for that partyin reality they are voting to determine who the delegates to the national party conventions will vote for
• what is a caucus

  a caucus is a public meeting in which people vote either by moving to a part of the room for a certain candidate or through a show of hands
• what is a primary

  a primary is a state wide election in which people cast a ballot for their candidates of choice
• states and further differences

  within each state there are further differences most notably who is allowed to take part in a primary or a caucus
• open primaries 


  open primaries and caucuses allow all voters in a state to take part, even if they are not a registered member of a partyvoters can take part in only one primarytherefore they would have to decide whether to vote in the democratic or republican primary or caucusthis means that a democratic voter could choose to vote in the republican primary and vice versa
• closed primaries 


  closed primaries and caucuses allow only voters who are registered as a party member to take partregistered democrats would be allowed to take part in the democratic primary or caucusvoters a sent a ballot only if they are registered party members and no one else can take part
• semi closed primaries 


  semi closed primaries and caucuses are a hybrid of open and closedregistered party members are allowed to take part only in their party's primary or caucusunregistered voters however are allowed to choose which party primary or caucus they want to vote in
• delegates 


  there is also a difference in how the delegates are allocated
• proportionally 


  in all democratic primaries and caucuses and some of the republican ones, the delegates are allocated proportionally to the vote that a candidate receives
• proportionally - winner takes all 


  in some republican primaries and caucuses the candidate with the biggest share of the vote is allocated all of the delegates for that state
• iowa 2020


  caucuses are organised differently between states and partiesin iowa in 2020 the democrats had 3,979 delegates to allocate for their national party convention and the republicans had 2,551