11 voting behaviour and general election

• The divide in the UK is now seen as a large city and some remaining strongholds in the north (e.g. Liverpool and Manchester) for Labour versus the majority of rural constituencies and towns for the Conservatives
• The popularity of the Conservatives declined with Partygate and the cost of living crisis, though Labour looks likely to win and win back many of the seats the Conservatives won in 2019, especially the "red wall" seats
• Class and social status are declining in importance as determinants of voting behaviour
• Labour faced a problem in 2019 of not being associated with protecting the interests of the blue-collar working classes, especially in the context of Brexit and globalisation
• Education has become a key dividing line, with those with fewer formal qualifications more likely to support the Conservatives and those with a university education more likely to vote Labour and Lib Dem
• In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 75% of those without qualifications supported Brexit, while 70% of those with a university degree supported Remain
• In 2019, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted Labour, 17% voted Lib Dem, and 29% voted Conservative, while 58% of those whose highest level of education was GCSE or lower voted Conservative
• Ethnicity is also an important factor, with white voters more likely to vote Conservative and black and minority ethnic voters much more likely to vote Labour
• In 2019, 64% of BME voters voted Labour, while just 20% voted Conservative
• Gender is a less important factor, though there are differences among the young, with the Conservatives winning 15% of young women but 28% of young men in 2017
• Rational choice theory


  The idea that voters behave like consumers by looking at the available options and evaluating which is the most beneficial to them
• Economic voting


  A more rigid theory suggesting that people simply vote out of self-interest for the party that will benefit them economically
• Issue-based voting is based on which party is closest to the voter on the policy they deem most important, even if they don't align with the party's other policies
• In 2019, 74% of Leave voters in the EU referendum voted for the Conservatives, including many in the "red wall" who had never voted Conservative before
• Valence factors

  Leadership, competence, and wider political and social context when there is little disagreement between parties on policy
• Presidentialisation of British politics


  The increasing focus on party leaders and their public image, similar to US politics
• The perceived competence of the current government and other parties also plays a key role, as seen in 2019 with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party being seen as incompetent
• Unexpected events and issues, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can also significantly impact the popularity of the government and their electoral prospects
• Election campaigns


  The six-week period before an election where parties publish manifestos and make active efforts to win over voters
• Many voters only pay attention to politics during election campaigns, so key events and gaffes can be important, though their influence is debated
• Manifesto promises are scrutinised and defended heavily in the media, but two-thirds of people don't read manifestos and many voters have made up their mind before they are published
• The media plays a key role in influencing election outcomes, as discussed in a separate video
• The conservative party used the clever slogan 'labor isn't working' in the 1979 election
• The political context was important in the 1979 election, with the labor government looking weak after nationalist parties withdrew support
• In the 1979 election, the conservatives made gains among the working classes for the first time, showing a slight breakdown in class as a determinant of voting behaviour
• The conservatives' 1979 manifesto of tax cuts and the right to buy scheme offered a radical change to voters following the post-war consensus
• In the 1997 election, New Labour won a landslide victory, removing the conservatives from office for the first time in 18 years
• Key factors in Labour's 1997 victory included their ability to win middle-class voters, rational choice and issue voting as they moved to the centre, and perceived competence and leadership of Blair compared to Major
• In the 2010 election, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats formed a coalition government, ending the New Labour era
• Key factors in the 2010 election included the campaign and TV debates, leadership, and the wider economic context of the 2008 financial crisis
• In the 2017 election, Theresa May's Conservatives lost their majority and had to form a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP
• their previous economic achievements so in terms of key points leadership can be seen as important
• The Wider economic context and how this influence the perceived incompetence of Labor committee is important
• policy can be seen as relatively unimportant
• the conservative is 142.4 of the vote and 318 seats labor won 40 of the vote and 262 seats um whilst the s p won three percent of the vote and 35 seats and the lib dams won 7.4 percent of the vote and just 12 seats
• there was therefore a significant shift from 2015 and 2010 um back to the two main parties as especially in 2015 there have been a shift away from the two main parties with the well not with the lib dams continuing to do well but the s p did really well and cleaned up in Scotland um and ukip for example received a significant amount of books
• Leadership


  May was perceived as being a weak leader whilst Corbin was able to take advantage of this through being very popular among certain sections of population especially the young
• May was derided for refusing to take part in the leaders debate which made her look weak and her strong and stable leadership message also gained little traction
• Policy and Rational Choice voting

  Corbin and labor gained significant support due to their policies to end austerity improve welfare and scrap University tuition fees after seven years of Tory government
• Recent terrorist attacks also affected the Tories and highlighted cuts to police numbers made since coming to power in 2010