case study : Iran

• in middle east and is bordered by Pakistan and Iraq
• current population = 87.9 million
• persian empire
• capital - Tehran - 6,800,000 population
• politics in Iran:

  • divide between young and old
  • women encouraged to cover up , many wear religious headwear , NO revealing clothing
  • elections not fair
  • talking about political opinions in public discouraged
• main ethnic groups : Irains and Turks
• population increase : 19 million in 1956 - 85 million in 2023
• fertility rate in 2022 - 1.7
• fertility rate 2 decades ago - 6.5 per woman
• by 2050 growth will stabilise by 105 million people
• large refugee population - 1 million mostly from Iraq and Afghanistan
• fertility rate decreased due to:

  • impact of contraceptive and counselling services deployed by Iran's gov in 1980
  • 62% of married women in Iran use contraceptive (highest in Muslim-majority countries)
• impact of decreasing fertility rate:

  transitioning from majority working class adults to large proportion of elderly people
• environmental and geographical factors for change:

  • Temperatures set to increase by 5.2 degrees by 2100
  • Droughts leading to decreased crop yields
  • Food and water shortages
  • Potential migration due to food shortages
  • Economic migrants seeking income in other countries
  • Displacement and migration due to droughts, storms, and land degradation
  • Air pollution-related diseases causing migration
  • Migration to areas with less severe air pollution
• capital city - Tehran is ranked 12th in air pollution among megacities (causes migration to areas with less severe air pollution)
• socio-economic factors driving change:

  • Education impacts migration
  • High literacy rate in Iran (86% in 2016)
  • Increase in women pursuing STEM degrees and higher salaries
  • Women prioritizing career over family
  • Access to university education increasing (42% of women earning degrees)
  • Low fertility rate due to career focus and access to contraception
  • Economic effects of US sanctions on Iran
  • Tehran's initiative to encourage childbirth ($660 million allocation)
  • Population increase expected to be limited due to sanctions
• political factors driving change:

  • Conflict and tension with the west driving desire to leave Iran
  • Iranian developments for nuclear weapons
  • Economic sanctions imposed by the USA
  • Increased cost of living due to sanctions
  • Women's rights restrictions in marriage, divorce, employment, and culture
  • Desire to seek equality and autonomy in western countries
• population growth in Iran:

  • Population growth rate: 1.39% (2018)
  • Population increase from 1960 to 2021: 301.4%
  • Highest increase recorded in 2015: 5.58%
  • 76% of the population lives in urban areas
  • Urbanization increasing by 1.3% annually
  • Fluctuating population growth with two clear sections: high growth and low growth
  • Exponential loss in population growth after 1990 (possible impact of Iraqi invasion)
  • Contraception availability impacting growth (by 1990, most married couples using contraception)
  • Decline in 2003 due to the Bam earthquake (over 34,000 deaths)
• how many people migrated due to dust and sand storms in 2021?

  2,300
• US sanctions on Iran

  • banning all trade with US
  • blocking government assets in US

  due to nuclear power programme and supporting 'terrorists' (according to US)
• example of restriction on women

  can't work without wearing a hijab
• true or false - Iran has the only condom factory in the Middle East?

  TRUE
• after the Iraq war , how many people resorted to permanent sterilisation?

  1/3
• impact of higher education rates

  • migration - losing skilled workers
  • e.g 1,000 Iranian nurses left
• why was there an increase in pro-natalist policies during the 1960s?

  more people were needed for war - introduced new policies e.g

  marriage age for girls reduced to age 9
• what happened in 2006 to increase fertility rate after population decline?

  calls for reversal of 'two children is enough' policy

  • every new-born given $950 and then $95 till they turn 18
  • population growth small - 1.39% in 2018
• what has the government recently banned in order to forcefully increase fertility rate?

  banned abortions and antenatal screening tests