voting behaviour

• Since the 1970s a process known as ‘class dealignment’ has occurred, where class began to lose its importance as a determinant of voting behaviour.

  • Thatcher was able to win three consecutive elections for the Conservative Party by attracting significant working class support.
  • Blair was able to then win three consecutive elections for the Labour Party by attracting significant middle class support.
• Class Dealignment:

  • was influenced by (1) society and the economy changing, with increasing affluence, declining importance of traditional blue collar industries and less pronounced differences between the classes and (2) the parties changing their policies to try and appeal to all classes so that they can win elections.
  • For some voters, class remains important in determining their identity and how they vote in general elections, however.
• In the post-WWII period, voters had strong affiliations with and attachments to political parties, which were part of voters’ identities.

  • This was influenced by family tradition, class, the workplace and the community.
• These attachments began declining in the 1970s and 80s and have continued to decline in the 21st century; a process known as ‘partisan dealignment’.
• There are now a lot more swing voters who are comfortable voting for any party (including rising minor parties) and decide each election.

  • This can be seen in the large number of voters in the traditionally Labour ‘red wall’ switching to the Conservatives for the first time in 2019.
  • Partisanship remains important for some voters, though, such as in Liverpool which continue to have very strong support for Labour.
• in the 21st century especially, significant sections of the electorate are also apathetic and disaffected by politics, as seen in decreasing turnouts at general elections.
• • Up until the early 1970s voting behaviour was strongly influenced by class and social status.
  • The majority of the working class voted for the Labour Party, which was strongly associated with the trade union movement and traditional ‘blue collar’ industries such as coal, steel and textiles.
  • The majority of the upper and middle classes voted for the Conservative Party including ‘white collar’ workers including non-manual workers, business people and property owners.
• Class voting was strongly influenced by self interest, with each party defined by protecting and representing different classes.

  • That said, it was never so clear cut, as the Tories always had a section of ‘deferential’ patriotic working class support and Labour some middle class support, especially those who worked in the state sector.
• • Social factors are highly useful for predicting and understanding voting behaviour, but they shouldn’t be seen as causal factors in themselves.
  • They interact with policy and party image.
  • For example, older voters or those in the South East may feel that the Conservative Party represents them better and vote for them because they have policies that benefit them.
• Social factors are likely to become less useful predictors of voting behaviour if the policies of the main parties are closer to each other and therefore don’t significantly appeal differently to different groups, such as was the case in 2010 and 2015.

  in these cases, valence factors become more important.
• today, age is a very key determinant of voting choice in UK elections. In 2017, YouGov called it the “new dividing line in British politics”. This is partly linked to home ownership.
• Older voters are much more likely to vote Conservative, whilst younger voters are muchmore likely to vote for Labour or other more left wing and ‘radical’ parties such as the Greens and the SNP.

  • In 2019, 22% of 18-29 year olds voted Conservative, whilst over 60% of over-60s did.
• Turnout is also much higher among older voters, therefore benefiting the Conservative Party.

  • Turnout among the 65+ age group in 2017 was around 25 percentage points higher than among 18-24 year olds.
• Voters have always become more conservative as they get older, however recent research is suggesting that millennials aren’t following suit, which is a big problem for the Conservative Party.
• traditionally, the Labour heartlands were in the North, parts of Wales and in Scotland, whilst the Tory heartlands were in the South East and the East Midlands.
• • In 1997 Blair was able to pick up many middle class seats from the Tories, including in the South East and East Midlands
  •  In 2010, the SNP shattered Labour’s dominance in Scotland.
  • In 2019 the Tories broke parts of the ‘Red Wall’; Labour’s previously connectingconstituencies of dominance in the North. Majorities of over 20,000 were flipped.
• today, class is of limited importance as a determinant of voting behaviour.
• In 2019, 42% of those in the AB category (managerial) voted Conservative compared to 78% in 1964, whilst just 34% of those in the DE category (semi and unskilled & unemployed or pensioners) voted Labour compared to 64% in 1964 (IPSOS MORI).

  • Labour faced the problem of not being associated with protecting the interests of the Blue Collar working class anymore, especially in the context of Brexit and globalisation.
• In recent elections and referendums, those with fewer formal qualifications more likely to support the Conservatives and those with university education more likely to vote for Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

  • in the EU referendum, those without qualifications went 75% for Brexit, whilst those with university degrees went 75% against.
  • In the 2019 election, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted for Labour, 17% for the Lib Dems and just 29% for the Conservatives.
  • The Conservative Party won 58% of the votes among those whose highest level of education was GCSE or lower (YouGov)
• White voters are more likely to vote for the Conservatives, whilst Black and Minority Ethnic voters are more likely to vote for Labour.

  • In 2019, 64% of BAME voters voted for Labour, whilst just 20% voted for the Conservatives.
  • Turnout is lower among BAME voters.
• Women used to be more likely to vote for the Conservatives, but now the influence of gender is marginal. Bur there is more of a difference among the young

  • In 2019, in the 18-24 age group, the Conservatives won just 15% of women, but 28% of men.
• Rational choice theory is the idea that voters behave like consumers by looking at the available options and evaluating which is the most beneficial for them.

  • linked to the growth of a more educated electorate, especially with the rise of the internet and the abundance of information online, including false information.
• • Economics plays an important role in rational choice theory, w/ there also being a more rigid theory; ‘economic voting’, that suggests that people simply vote out of self interest for the party that will benefit them economically.
  • explains why homeowners are more likely to vote for the Conservatives and those who rent are more likely to vote for Labour.
• Issue based voting is similar to rational choice theory in that it suggests voters vote based on policy, but is different in suggesting that voters vote based on which party is closest to them on the policy they deem most important, even if they are not aligned with the party’s other policies.

  The 2019 election was a key example of this. 74% of Leave voters voted for the Tories (including many in the Red Wall who had never done so before), whilst 49% of Remain voters voted Labour.
• Valence issues are when there isn’t significant disagreement between parties and voters therefore choose based on which party they think is going to be most effective in government.

  • These became more important in the 2010 and 2015 elections, when there were fewer policy differences between the parties.
  • When valence issues are more significant, social factors are likely to be less significant.
• The public image of party leaders has become more important in recent decades as politics has become increasingly personalised.

  • Commentators have talked about the 'presidentialisation' of British politics since the 1979 election, with the suggestion being that UK election campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters' perceptions of the leading figures, as they are in the US, in part due to media focus.
• Parties appreciate the importance of presenting their leaders in a good light, with attention given to photo opportunities that will show the leaders' human touch, as well as leaders’ debates.

  • Leaders can be seen as important in winning over swing voters and unifying the party.
• The performance of the current government is an important factor, as voters can pass judgement on their performance in power.

  • For example, the Tories were thrown out in 1997 having dropped behind in the polls ever since Black Wednesday in 1992 which wrecked their reputation of being economically competent.
• • When asked what the greatest challenge was for a Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan said ‘events, my dear boy, events’.
  • Events are highly important in influencing the popularity of the government and different parties and therefore their electoral prospects.
  • These can be political events such as splits within parties or wider social and economic developments such as the performance of the economy, key natural disasters or foreign policy issues.
• • During the campaign, parties publish their manifestos and make active efforts on the ground and in the media to win over voters, including spending significant amounts of money on advertising and appearing in TV interviews and debates.
  • Many voters only pay attention to politics during election campaigns and they can therefore be seen as highly important to election results, especially if key events/gaffes happen during them.
  • On the other hand, their importance can be overstated as many voters will have already made up their mind and don’t make voting choices based on short-term events.
• • Even though manifesto promises aren’t always carried out (as was the case with the Lib Dems’ pledge to scrap tuition fees following the 2010 election), they do give a very good indication of the shape of party policy and are highly informative.
  • They are scrutinised, focused on and defended heavily in the media during election campaigns and can therefore be seen as highly important in influencing voter choice.
  • On the other hand, polling has shown that 2⁄3 of people don’t read manifestos, whilst many voters have made their mind up months or years before manifestos are released.