Voting behavior

• • Social media now plays an important role in UK elections, with parties looking to advertise themselves on platforms.
  • Politicians can now communicate directly with voters.
  • In 2017 the Conservatives spent over £2 million on Facebook advertising, including adverts which attacked the Corbyn.
  • Labour reached out to voters on Snapchat, with a Corbyn Snapchat filter viewed over 9 million times.
• • Television remains important for providing information and news to voters, with the televised election debates in 2017 watched by millions of people.
  • Research by the Electoral Reform Society stated that a BBC Question Time Leaders’ show where both leaders spoke on tv and answered questions, helped 34% of voters to decide who to vote for in 2017.
• The Daily Telegraph often supports the Conservatives and The Guardian often supports Labour.

  • Parties have looked to project a positive image of themselves and their leaders in the media.
  • For example, Tony Blair hired a press secretary, Alastair Campbell, to ensure himself and the Labour Party were portrayed in the best possible light by the media during his time as PM.
• • Opinion polls look to determine how citizens will vote in elections.
  • Opinion polls are important in UK elections, with parties valuing their findings and conducting their own opinion polls.
  • The exit poll asks voters who they have voted after leaving the polling station and is released on the night of the election results.
• • Opinion polls have been inaccurate in past general elections, such as 2015 when it failed to predict that the Conservatives would win an overall majority.
  • Reasons include ‘shy Tories’ who vote for Conservatives but do not publicly admit to it and the ‘boomerang effect’ where voters who saw Labour leading in the polls and did not support them turned out to vote.
  • In recent years the exit poll has been more accurate.
  • Polling firms include Survation, Ipsos MORI and YouGov.
• • The media can influence voting behaviour, however, media alone is rarely a strong enough factor to change how people vote.
  • Media often confirms people’s own political views as people engage with media that reflects their beliefs.
  • The media does play a role because it can shape the political agenda through the way it covers issues and focuses on certain issues over others.
• • The winning party at all recent general elections were supported by the majority of newspapers, supporting the Conservatives in 2010, 2015 and 2017.
  • In 1992 the Sun published a headline against Labour leader Neil Kinnock on the day of the election which stated ‘If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights’.
• • TV can have an important role in influencing people’s impressions and opinions of party leaders.
  • Tv debates changed opinion polls in the 2010 election in favour of Nick Clegg.
• • Newspapers are partisan and biased, they may change their allegiance depending on a party’s ideology and also changing circumstances.
  • The Sun supported the tories in the 2010 general election, but, supported Blair in 1997 and supported Thatcher in 1979 because of her policies to weaken trade unions which suited the business interests of the paper’s owner, Rupert Murdoch.
• • TV can be more neutral coverage than newspapers. Parties are given agreed amounts of time for televised election broadcasts. Most tv channels are committed to being politically neutral.
• In 2019 Conservative retained 85% of their 2017 votes, labour 72% and SNP 87%
• 2019:

  • Labour= 43 point lead in 18-24yrs (62% vs Cons 19%)
  • Conservatives= 47 point lead in 65+ (64% vs Lab 17%)
• 2024:

  • 40% + 25-49 yr olds voted labour vs Conservatives under 20%
• Over the past six elections the difference between men and women when voting labour or conservatives hasn't gone over 4%
• • Approx 60-70% of BAME voters voted Labour from 2010-2019 elections
  • 2024 saw Labour drop 13 points from 56% to 43% among British-Asian voters
• • Labour Heartlands = North of England, Wales & and cities- have a higher concentration of ethnic minorities which tend to vote labour or Lib Dem
  • Conservative Heartlands = More rural areas and south England
• • 2015-2019: SNP dominated Westminster parties in Scotland
  • 2024: Returned to Labour 37/57 seats won
  • 2019: Conservatives won labour heartlands- Wales % the north, working class support won by Brexit promises Sedgefield (Blairs seat)- con for the 1st time in 90 yrs
  • 2024: Conservative heartlands devastated, huge labour and lib victories, Truss South West Norfolk- 26,000 majority overturned
• • Business owners, White collar workers- vote conservative due to wealth accumulation policies
  • Manufacturing based, blue collar workers- vote labour due to like to union
• • Conservatives = 58% of voters who do not hold a degree
  • Labour = 43% of voters with a degree or higher, 29% cons
  • Lib dems = 17% of university graduates
• Has politics been changed to leave remain lines, explains Borises victory
• Rational Choice Theory:

  • voter act like consumers choosing the best product on offer
  • so parties are successful by creating popular policies, Thatcher and Blair
  • combines issue and valence
• Issue Voting: Theory

  • voter make decisions based on their and a parties preference on a specific issue
  • assumes a high level of political engagement so doesn't really describe voting patterns
  • 1987 & 1992 voters preferred labour policy but voted conservative
  • 2019 & Brexit
• Valence Voting: Theory

  • about what party a voter trusts to deliver, perceived competence, leadership and media skill not necessarily policy
  • 2019: Labour credibility on Brexit coupled with media critique and economic plans, people didn't trust them..
• Party Leader: Theory

  • Charisma, photo opportunities and "brand", Blair as a young energetic, family man, 2010 TV Debates
  • the rise of "everyday" characters, BoJo and Farage. People would rather vote for someone who "tells the truth" irrespective of their policy
• Governing Competency: Theory                                      

  1)Control of Events: E.g. John Major or Rishi Sunak losing power when stumbling from one crisis to another, unable to control events (Brexit, COVID, Partygate, Trussenomics?)

  2)Policy: E.g. Thatcher stuck firmly to promises about changing economic model – won 3 elections

  3)Party Unity & Strong Leadership: E.g. Labour under Blair saw voters reward party who had a clear vision & were united
• Economic Management: Theory

  • Voters are more likely to support a party if: It has managed the economy successfully (Thatcher, Blair) Or, it seems likely to be able to deliver economic prosperity (Starmer)
  • Equally, voters are less likely to support a governing party which they feel has mismanaged the economy or who may ‘wreck’ the economy
  • Labour in 1979: Winter of Discontent
  • 2008 Financial Crisis seeing Gordon Brown lose in 2010
  • Corbyn’s losses due to perceived economic incompetence
  • Liz Truss u-turns leading to Rishi’s defeat in 2024
• Manifesto’s & Policies:

  • Collection of policies and promises – in theory, should be the most important factor in deciding how people vote…
  • A BMG Research poll has revealed that two-thirds of the UK public (67%) either don’t read manifestos, or they don’t know what they are.
• The Campaign:

  • Mishaps & gaffes in campaigning attract great media attention

  Increasingly important in recent years, given polarized & closely contested elections

  • 2010: Gordon Brown – “Bigoted Woman”
  • 2017: Theresa May – “Fields of Wheat” & “Strong & Stable”
  • 2024: Rishi Sunak – D-Day Departure & Sky TV
  • party with clear lead will win despite mishaps - 2001 The Prescott Punch - Rhyl, 2001 - YouTube
• The Campaign:

  • Conversely, parties can use campaigns to garner public interest through posters, rallies, key slogans or speeches
  • u997: Tony Blair – Labour’s sense of optimism: ‘Things Can Only Get Better’
  • 2017: Jeremy Corbyn – Looked doomed, yet rally-style campaigning saw him surprise pollsters
  • 2019: Boris Johnson – ‘Get Brexit Done’
• Opinion Polls:

  • •Polls = Assess popularity of political parties by asking a sample how they intend to vote

  •Criticised in past for getting predictions spectacularly wrong in recent years:

  •2015: Hung Parliament wrongly predicted

  •2017: May’s massive majority wrongly predicted 

  •Could influence voting themselves? E.g. Labour being seen as miles ahead in 2024?
• Policies:

  • Should be most important factor in deciding peoples votes
  • voter unlikely to agree with all a party’s policies, so vote for those closest to own views                                                                                                                                
  • Radical agendas can inspire voters 
  • Blair in 1997
  • Equally those which lack an exciting headline policy, clear narrative or fresh vision may flop 
  • Miliband in 2015, Theresa in 2017 & Rishi in 2024
• Leaders:

  • Presidential type elections more common, with greater media attention on leaders as figureheads
  • TV Debates since 2010 onwards
  • Presidential Campaigns of Blair & Cameron Charismatic leaders more trusted? Thatcher, Blair, Farage or Johnson?
  • Leaders who appear weak or confused struggle to get voters’ support Miliband, May, Corbyn, Truss or Sunak?
• Media:

  • Controls how parties are portrayed to voters, shaping their opinions
  • Traditional forms like Papers or TV
  • The Sun’s support in elections – 1997: ‘The Sun Backs Blair’, Anti-Corbyn Newspaper coverage
  • Rise of newer forms like Social Media, Conservatives in 2019,

  Reform’s Tiktok Campaign 
• Wider Political Context:

  • If a party has been in power for a long-time, voter fatigue or frustration may set in
  • Low Trust: make mistakes or involved in scandals
  • Sexual & Financial Scandals: Conservatives in 1997
  • Perceived Economic Incompetence: Labour in 2010 & Conservatives in 2024
  • Key issues also dominate elections – Brexit in 2019…
• Party Unity:

  • Unity shows strength & a clear vision, 1997 Blair & Brown, 2024 Starmer’s Shadow Cabinet
  • Disunity is very damaging as it looks like there is no clear plan, undermining voter trust
  • Parties at war with themselves suffer electoral consequences, 1992 Major’s Conservatives, 2005 Blair vs Brown divide, 2017 May’s Conservatives or Rishi in 2024
• Opposition:

  • Quality of opposition affects how successful a party may be                                                          
  • One hand = Opposition has less experience than a government with expertise & status of office
  • Other hand = Government’s track record can be skilfully        critiqued by the opposition if competent- Labour in 1997 demonstrating the mistakes of Major’s government? Same again for Keir in 2024?
• Money:

  • Parties must fund their own activities, reliant on membership fees, fundraising & donations
  • No rules limiting the amount of money an individual may give a party
  • Amount parties may spend = Limited
  • Labour received roughly 8 million more than the conservatives in campaign donations during 2024 election
• Laws govern political broadcasting on free-to-air TV and Radio, particularly the BBC

  • Ofcom states:

  1)Party coverage during election period must be fair & appropriate

  2)All discussion & analysis of election/referendum issues must finish when polls open

  3)On election day, broadcasters must wait until polls close before publishing results of opinion polls

  4)List of all candidates must be included in any constituency discussions
• GB News:

  •  Unashamedly right-wing in its coverage 
  • Drawn parallels with Fox News in US
  • Contributors include Conservative MPs Jacob Rees-Mogg & Esther McVey, and Reform’s Lee Anderson & Nigel Farage
  • Then Chancellor Jeremy Hunt interviewed by Conservative MPs – impartiality issues?
  • Ofcom opened 13 investigation and fined the rightwing GB News £100,000 for “breaking due impartiality rules” over the programme titled People’s Forum: The Prime Minister
• Television

  • Used to dominate Politics & Election coverage- peaked in 2010s, Leaders Debate watched by close to 10 million
  • Still a major source of information for many
  • BBC News reach in April 2023 = 9.7 million
  • However, election influence waning? Declining debate audiences reflect general TV decline (Netflix?)…

  2024 = Only 4.8 million watched 1st debate