historical trends in human population size

• The world's population is growing rapidly
• Most of this growth is quite recent
• The world's population doubled between 1804 and 1922, 1922 and 1959, and 1959 to 1974

  
• It is now taking less time for the population to double, although growth has slowed down since 1999
• Such growth is referred to as

  Exponential growth
• Up to 95% of this current growth is taking place in developing countries
• The world's population is expected to stabilize at 8.5 billion
• Before and during the early decades of industrialisation


  • Life expectancies were low in Western Europe and the US
  • Thousands died from poor nutrition and infectious diseases such as cholera which spread rapidly in the crowded, unsanitary condition common in towns and major cities
• From 1850 through 1950, advances in health and safety


  Improved living conditions in industrialized nations
• Major milestones


  • Improving urban sanitation and waste removal
  • Improving the quality of water supply and expanding access to it
  • Forming public health boards to detect illnesses and quarantine the sick
  • Researching causes and means of transmission of infectious diseases
  • Developing vaccines and antibiotics
  • Adopting workplace safety laws and limits on child labour
  • Promoting nutrition through fortifying staples with vitamins
• By the mid 20th century, most industrialized nations passed through the demographic transition
• Demographic Transition Model


  • Shows the change in population structure over time
  • Shows how population changes from when a country is an LEDC to when it becomes an MEDC
  • When a country is an LEDC, it tends to have higher birthdates and lower death rates
• Most women are having few babies than their grandmothers
• Birth rates will still be high due to more women entering their reproductive ages
• Population may begin to decline by 2025
• Populations in European countries and Japan are already declining
• Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have the highest population growth
• Most populations around the world are aging due to falling fertility rates and increases in life expectancy
• Population growth by world region


  • https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-by-world-region-the-annual-change-of-the-population?country=OWID_WRL~Africa~Asia~Europe~Northern+America~Latin+America+and+the+Caribbean~Oceania

  
• Natural Projected Growth Rate


  • https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/natural-population-growth?time=2021&country=~OWID_WRL
• The developing world with their increasing life expectancy and high fertility rates is still experiencing rapid population growth (95%)
• Most of this growth is within the poorest countries
• The 5.3 billion population in underdeveloped countries is expected to increase to 7.8 billion in 2050
• Population growth rate by level of development


  • https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rate-by-level-of-development?time=2095..2099&country=Less+Developed+Regions~More+Developed+Regions~Least+Developed+Countries
• Latin America and the Caribbean


  • Has the smallest growth, due to fertility declines and has the lowest average fertility rate of 2.2, closest to that of developed countries
  • Contraceptive use is very high in this region
  • Declining fertility means population growth in the region will be low but the population will rise to approximately 730 million by 2050 ( an increase of 25%)

  
• Asia


  • Has a population of 4.3 billion, with India and China responsible for most growth in the region
  • India's current population is 1.3 billion and is expected to exceed China's 1.5 billion by 2025 due to their high total fertility rates
  • There is a wide TFR range in Asia: 1.4 or less in countries such as Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore up to 6.4 in Afghanistan
  • Annual population growth rate is approx. 1.1%
  • Contraceptive use in China is over 90% while outside of China it is more than 50%
  • More than 50% of the world's 1.8 billion young people between 10 and 24 years live in Asia
• Population distribution in the Developed World


  • Population growth rate is slowed or virtually non existent due to low birth rates and aging populations
  • In time, deaths will most likely exceed births in these countries
  • Most developed countries have low fertility rates around 1.4 and are facing severe population decline
  • Europe's population is projected to decrease from 740 to 732 million by 2050
  • Some European countries like France and Norway have implemented pro-natalist policies to increase their population growth
  • Fertility rates have fallen sharply in developed countries as women delay marriage and child-bearing
  • Smaller family sizes are the norm and contraceptive use is widespread
• There is a demographic divide between developed and developing countries