The study of the determinants, occurrence, distribution and control of health and disease within a population
Epidemiology
1. Observe
2. Hypothesize
3. Test
4. Evaluate
Endemic disease
Occurs with a steady, low level frequency at moderately regular intervals within a population
Predictable diseases
Cold (rhinovirus)
Sporadic disease
Occurs occasionally at irregular intervals
Unpredictable diseases
Tetanus (Clostridium tetani)
Epidemic
Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease beyond the expected level
Epidemic
Malaria
Pandemic
Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease beyond the expected level within a large population covering a wide area (global!)
Pandemic
Spanish flu
Outbreak
Sudden unexpected occurrence of a disease either locally or within a limited section of a population
Zoonoses
Animal diseases that can be occasionally transmitted to human hosts
Zoonoses
Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis)
Prior to 1900's infectious diseases were the major killer of humans
Humans did not live long enough to suffer significantly from many of the diseases of an ageing population that we see today
Major infectious diseases prior to 1900
Smallpox
Cholera
Typhoid fever
Yellow fever
Bubonic plague
Measles
Whooping cough
Scarlet fever
Diphtheria
John Snow
Established link between consumption of contaminated water and cholera
Established basic principles of epidemiological investigation
Epidemiological investigation
1. Collect information
2. Analyse information
3. Act!
4. Evaluate
The General Board of Health Report 1854 dismissed the link between contaminated water and cholera
The Lambeth Company did not move their water source upstream, resulting in 70 deaths per 10,000 houses
The Southwark and Vauxhall Company moved their water source upstream, resulting in 5 deaths per 10,000 houses
Vibrio cholerae
Gram negative
Facultatively aerobic
Fermentative
Oxidase positive
Motile by polar flagella
Aquatic
Phage-encoded toxin
Morbidity data
Measurement of the incidence and prevalence of a disease within a population
There is a legal requirement to notify UKHSA (formally Public Health England) when certain infections are detected
Notifiable infections
Cholera
Tuberculosis
Meningitis
COVID
Incidence
Newly diagnosed cases in a certain time
Prevalence
Frequency of disease in population in a certain time
Influenza has 650,000 annual mortality (2017)
2019-nCoV had 132 deaths from 6065 cases (29/1/20)
Immunological surveys
Screen population to detect individuals who have mounted an immune response to a particular pathogen (humoral or CMI) or to directly detect the presence of pathogens
Use of antibiotics and other pharmaceuticals
Suggests the presence of various organisms (Broad spectrum vs Narrow spectrum)
Population demographics
Age profiles, ethnic makeup etc. can influence disease prevalence
Epizootology
Monitoring animal diseases that can be passed on to humans
Ecological studies of vectors
Prevalence of arthropods in specific environments can define the risk of arthropod-borne diseases
Arthropod-borne disease
Dengue fever - more active in hot weather when mosquitoes are more prevalent
Centralisation of epidemiological information
World Health Organisation (WHO), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Health Protection Agency (HPA), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
The WHO, CDC, HPA, and ECDC collect, correlate and disseminate epidemiological information
The WHO Disease Outbreak News (DONs) site reports on current virus infections causing concern
Many factors contribute to current cholera outbreaks globally
The WHO Global Health Observatory provides access to WHO datasets on various health topics