Module 6

• Reasoning


  The process of drawing conclusions from principles and from evidence
• Types of reasoning


  • Deductive
  • Inductive
• Deductive reasoning


  The process of reasoning from one or more general statements regarding what is known to reach a logically certain conclusion
• Proposition


  An assertion, which may be either true or false
• Premises


  Propositions about which arguments are made
• Syllogism


  A logical argument consisting of premises and a conclusion
• Inductive reasoning


  The process of reasoning from specific facts or observations to reach a likely conclusion that may explain the facts
• Inductive reasoning


  • We never can reach a logically certain conclusion, only a particularly well-founded or probable conclusion
• Causal inferences


  How people make judgments about whether something causes something else
• Categorical inferences


  The basis on which people draw inferences, using both bottom-up strategies (observing instances) and top-down strategies (using prior knowledge)
• Reasoning by analogy


  Applying inductive reasoning to a broader range of situations, observing relations in one pair and applying them to another pair
• People often rely on heuristics or mental shortcuts when making decisions rather than evaluating every possible option and outcome
• Classical decision-making model


  Assumes decision-makers have complete information and are rational actors who aim to maximize their self-interest
• Administrative decision-making model


  Recognizes that decision-making is often bounded by constraints such as time, information, and cognitive capacity, and decision-makers use heuristics or rules of thumb
• Political decision-making model


  Recognizes that power, conflict, and coalitions among stakeholders often influence decisions, and decision-making is a complex social process involving bargaining and compromise
• Classical decision theory


  Early models of decision-making, often devised by economists, statisticians, and philosophers, that assume decision-makers are fully informed, infinitely sensitive to distinctions, and fully rational
• Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT)

  A model that emphasizes the role of subjective factors, such as personal preferences and estimates of likelihood, in determining behavior
• Heuristics


  Mental shortcuts that lighten the cognitive load of making decisions
• Satisficing


  A heuristic that allows people to make decisions quickly and efficiently by selecting the first option that meets a minimum level of acceptability
• Availability heuristic


  Making decisions based on information that is readily available or easily recalled
• Satisficing


  Allows people to make decisions quickly and efficiently, especially when faced with limited time or resources. By selecting the first option that meets a minimum level of acceptability, people can avoid spending excessive time and effort on decision-making processes that may not result in significantly better outcomes.
• Satisficing may also result in suboptimal decisions if the minimum level of acceptability is too low or better options that were not considered are available
• Satisficing is not always the best approach to decision-making. In situations where the stakes are higher or where the consequences of a suboptimal decision are more significant, it may be more appropriate to invest additional time and resources in exploring more options and thoroughly evaluating each option's pros and cons
• Availability heuristic


  Involves making decisions based on how easily we can bring certain examples or experiences to mind. Can lead to overestimating the likelihood of rare events that are more memorable
• Representativeness heuristic


  Involves judgments based on how closely something matches our mental image or prototype of a certain category or group. Can lead to overlooking important individual differences
• Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic


  Involves starting with an initial estimate or anchor and then adjusting it based on additional information. Can lead to being overly influenced by the initial guess
• Confirmation Bias


  Involves seeking information confirming our beliefs or expectations while ignoring information contradicting them. Can lead to being closed-minded and resistant to change
• Elimination by aspects


  Focus on one aspect (attribute) of the various options and form a minimum criterion for that aspect, eliminate all options not meeting that criterion, then select a second aspect and repeat the process until a single option remains
• Decision-making biases


  Systematic errors and deviations in the decision-making process that result in decisions that deviate from rational and objective decision-making principles
• Common decision-making biases


  • Illusory correlation
  • Overconfidence
  • Hindsight bias
• Illusory correlation


  The tendency of people to see particular events or attributes as going together, even when they do not. Contributed to by the representativeness heuristic and availability heuristic
• Overconfidence


  An individual's overvaluation of skills, knowledge, or judgment. Contributed to by cognitive dissonance, the planning fallacy, and the illusion of control
• Hindsight bias


  The tendency to believe that one could have easily predicted the outcome of an event, even though they were unable to do so beforehand. Contributed to by confirmation bias, selective memory, and fundamental attribution error
• Obstacles to reasoning and decision-making

  • Gambler's Fallacy
  • Conjunction Fallacy
  • Sunk-Cost Fallacy
  • Ad Hominem Fallacy
  • Appeal to Authority Fallacy
  • False Dilemma Fallacy
• Gambler's Fallacy


  The mistaken belief that previous random events influence the probability of a given random event
• Hot Hand effect


  The belief that a certain course of events will continue, despite lack of statistical evidence
• Conjunction Fallacy


  Giving a higher estimate for a subset of events than for the larger set of events containing the given subset
• Sunk-Cost Fallacy


  Continuing to invest in something simply because one has invested in it before, hoping to recover the investment
• Ad Hominem Fallacy


  Attacking the person making an argument rather than the argument itself
• Appeal to Authority Fallacy

  Arguing something is true simply because an authority figure says it is true