The Predictability and Magnitude of Tropical Storms

• Tropical Storms: Predictability

  • Each year, NOAA (US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) publishes a prediction of hurricane activity for the forthcoming season. It uses a number of indicators such as sea-surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions and short-term climatic cycles (e.g. El Nino and La Nina) to suggest the number of storms that might be expected.
• • For 2016, NOAA predicted a near-normal hurricane season, with 4-8 hurricanes, with 1-4 predicted to be major. 
• The USA has implemented a hurricane watch, which is a 36 hour warning. This is an example of monitoring and predicting troublesome storms and storm surges.
• Monitoring and predicting tropical storms

  • HIC's have much more access but they can inform other LIC's nearby
  • This can reduce the loss of life, however, does not affect the impact of flooding and is not accurate in large areas.