Cognitive biases

• What are heuristics?(Kahneman & Tversky, 1973)


  Simple, efficient rules which people often use to form judgements & make decisions. Mental shortcuts that usually involve focusing on 1 aspect of a complex problem & ignoring others.
• What are cognitive biases?

  Heuristics work well under most circumstances, but can lead to systematic deviations from logic, probability or rational choice theory. Resulting errors=cognitive biases, & many different types have been documented. Affect people's choices in situations, such as valuing a house.
• Name some cognitive biases/heuristics:

  Representativeness, availability, illusion of control, hindsight bias & self-serving bias.
• What is representativeness?


  Belief that random events have a pattern. Think small sets of events ae representative of sets of larger events ( gamblers fallacy).
• Examples of representativeness:

  Gambler may feel that bet is a 'sure thing' due to the representativeness heuristic telling them an outcome is due. Gambler may feel after a run of losing bets they are 'due' a win, & so may persist in gambling behaviour.
• What is availability?


  Events that are more easily recalled from memory may bias our assessment of how likely an outcome is. E.g, people probably remember many instances of hearing about lottery winners in media-rarely hear about millions of those who don't win. Gamblers may overestimate their likelihood of winning jackpot. Winning gives you a 'buzz'-you'll remember the times you won, & not times you lost.
• How do gambling machine companies use the availability heuristic?

  When jackpot on fruit machine is won, usually lot of noise & fanfare, as well as satisfying noise of coins dispersion. When gamblers lose, machine stays silent. Slot machines close together so people hear others win & think same will happen to them.
• How do cognitive biases explain addiction?

  Addicts engage in behaviours with clear negative outcomes. If humans were rational, we wouldn't become addicted as the costs outweigh the benefits. May be that addicts have problems in way they think about their behaviour. May have cognitive errors & biases that lead them to make what they feel are rational choices.
• Joukhador et al (2003) :


  Developed 65-item scale called 'Gambling belief questionnaire' that covers range of cognitive biases. Compared responses on questionnaire between 56 problem gamblers & 52 social gamblers & found across almost all different beliefs assessed, problem gamblers scored higher.
• Mark Griffiths (1994) :


  Compared verbalisations of 30 regular gamblers with 30 non-regular gamblers whilst playing fruit machine. Regular gamblers showed many more irrational verbalisations than non-regular gamblers (14% compared to 2.5%). Verbalisations showed evidence of heuristics & biases.
• Issues with cognitive bias research:

  Researcher bias, as researchers decide what bias is being shown (expectations may influence bias selected). E.g, Griffiths- questionnaires (Gambling belief questionnaire) rely on honesty-social desirability bias & demand characteristics. Gambler may not admit their thoughts are irrational.
• What is illusion of control?

  People believe 2 actions are related when they actually aren't. E.g, lucky trousers-had a few big wins whilst wearing them, so may continue wearing them at casino, thinking they'll win again. Believe they're controlling aspects of process to improve chances of success, (e.g, rolling dice in certain way).
• What is hindsight bias?


  Claim they're not surprised by outcome of gamble & could have predicted what outcome would be. Helps them maintain belief that once their skills have improved they'll be able to win more consistently.
• What is self-serving bias?

  Gamblers attribute any wins to internal causes such as skill, & any losses to external factors, e.g, bad luck. Helps them feel it's not their fault if they lose & therefore continue gambling.
• Monte Carlo (1913) :


  Roulette wheel showed run of black for 26 times in succession-gamblers thought red was 'due'.
• What is attentional bias? (Weinstein & Cox, 2006) :


  Addict is paying attention to certain stimuli & ignoring others in environment. Plays role in development & maintenance of addiction. Increases motivation to engage in behaviour. E.g, smoking-influenced by environmental cues, such as smell of cigs & adverts. Tested using Stroop test.
• What is the Stroop test?

  Shown words printed in colour different to word itself & asked to name colour of word. Words emotionally neutral (e.g, song or change) or words linked to addiction (e.g, coke). If take longer to name colour addiction words written in, suggests attention taken up by word itself-demonstrates cognitive bias.
• Griffiths (2013) :


  1st time there was x3 rollover lottery, media reported 13 came up fewer times than any other. Those representative bias picked 13, those availability bias did not. Cognitive bias as explanation doesn't allow predictions about behaviour to be accurately made. May use different biases on different occasions with no pattern.
• Johnsen et al (1997) :


  Compared active smokers, abstinent smokers & non-smokers on responses to addiction Stroop test, & found smokers had longer reaction times than other 2 groups. Supports idea attentional bias plays role in addiction.
• Baboushkin et al (2001) :


  Suggests many heuristics are appropriate in everyday situations but not appropriate when dealing with chance events- problem gamblers fail to recognise this. Problem gamblers may have more cognitive biases or may just apply heuristics inappropriately.