COGNITIVE BIASES AO1

• Cognitive explanation


  Focuses on the way people think about a behaviour rather than the behaviour itself
• Heuristics


  Mental shortcuts that allow us to make decisions quickly and with little effort
• While heuristics are undoubtedly vital for humans to function, they can lead to errors
• Representativeness heuristic


  The belief that random events have a pattern, and that a series of events drawn from a small sample should represent what would be found in a larger sample
• Gambler's fallacy


  A gambler may feel that a bet is a 'sure thing' due to the representativeness heuristic telling them that an outcome is due
• Gambler's fallacy


  • In Monte Carlo in 1913, one roulette wheel showed a run of black for a record 26 times in succession. Gamblers believed that a red was 'due' and there was a rush to bet on red, leading to lots of money being lost
• Availability heuristic


  An event is seen as more likely if it is easier to recall from memory
• Availability heuristic


  • Gamblers overestimate their likelihood of winning the jackpot because they easily remember the times when they won big, but it is harder to remember the times when they lost
• Companies that make gambling machines are aware of availability heuristic
• Availability heuristic in gambling machines

  • When the jackpot on a fruit machine or other betting machine is won, there is usually a lot of noise and fanfare, as well as the satisfying noise of the coins being dispensed. However, when the gambler loses, the machine is silent. This means that the gambler is more likely to remember the wins than the losses and so will overestimate their chances of success in the future