demographic transition model

• The Demographic Transition model (DTM) is a graph which shows the changes in a countries birth rate, death rate and population during development. It is divided into 5 stages.
• Stage 1 (high stationary) :

  • death rate fluctuates more than birth rate due to famines and plague
  • population is constant, with high infant mortality rate and low life expectancy
  • pre-industrial society with subsistence farmers
• There are no more countries in stage 1, due to aid with clean water and medical supplies.
• Stage 2 (early expanding) :

  • death rate falls due to improved medicine, hygiene and sanitation
  • infant mortality decreases
  • birth rate is stable because children are an economic asset
  • large population growth
• In stage 2, there is urbanisation and industrialisation so the influx of labour into cities leads to economic growth and modernisation. A virtuous spiral of cumulative causation begins to take place.
• Stage 3 (late expanding) :

  • death rates stabilise at low level
  • birth rate falls due to improved living, education of women, and contraception
  • population growth
  • low infant mortality because child labour is made illegal
• In stage 3, the low death and falling birth rate leads to a demographic dividend, so the economy can grow due to lots of available workers.
• Stage 4 (low stationary) :

  • low death rates
  • low birth rates
  • population is stable
  • birth rate fluctuates due to changes in economic conditions
  • life expectancy increases but the proportion of elderly dependents is still low
• Stage 5 (declining) :

  • death rate increases due to ageing population dying, regardless of good healthcare
  • birth rate decreases due to education of women
  • population decreases since mortality is higher than fertility
  • children are economic burdens due to increasing cost of living
• In stage 5, the country is post-industrial with the economy based on service and hi-tech services. The government encourages immigration to replenish workforce, which can push the country back to stage 4.
• Advantages of DTM:

  • easy to understand
  • universal concept - applies to all countries
  • provides a starting point for demographic change
  • timescales are flexible
  • comparisons between countries
• Problems of DTM:

  • fifth stage had to be added
  • eurocentric - local customs, religions change birth and death rates
  • ignores differences between regions in a country
  • can’t predict when countries move through stages
  • doesn’t include government policies
  • no migration
  • can’t predict diseases and pandemics
  • can’t predict outbreak of war
• Youthful population causes - Uganda:

  • low infant mortality rate, high birth rate
  • fertility rate is 6
  • few old people
  • high death rate
• Youthful population impact - Uganda:

  • pressure on health services with shortage of midwives
  • 6000 women die in childbirth each year
  • HIV/AIDS outbreak - 1 million AIDS orphans
  • pressure on education - only 50% of children in schools
  • unemployment increase, so poverty increase
• Youthful population solution - Uganda:

  • encouraged contraception but 70% do not use
  • more clinics with trained doctors and nurses but they emigrate to HICs
  • ABC policy - abstinence, be faithful, contraception
  • training teachers
  • TNCs set up factories to reduce unemployment
  • foreign aid
• Ageing population facts - Japan:

  • 25% is over 65
  • elderly live in cities
  • Japanese cities don’t have enough staff and care centres
  • 400 old people homes, but 800 needed
  • 2.5 million have senile dementia
  • Panasonic invest in robots for hospitals
  • Old people have part-time jobs for purpose
• Elderly people use lots of spending from the government in Japan, so they have to decrease cost of medical care and restructure the health system to be more efficient. Japanese scientists say people should work until mid 70s because being lonely and old is the worst combination.
• development indicator - fact about a country that indicates how advanced they are in a particular area e.g. number of people per doctor (not healthcare)
• component indicator - use one type of fact
• composite indicator - more than one fact to produce a statistic e.g. HDI
• The Human Development Index has 3 dimensions: long and healthy life (life expectancy), knowledge (mean years, expected years), standard of living (GNI per capita). It provides a score between 0 and 1 per country. It takes multiple indicators into account but makes 1 number to be compared.