Explanation and prediction

• Explanation is connected to the concept of prediction.
• There are two kinds of explanation: deterministic (deductive-nomological explanation) and probabilistic (inductive-statistical explanation).
• The concept of probability is interpreted philosophically.
• Explanation and prediction are related through the identity (symmetry) theory.
• Deduction is a top down approach that takes premises and then a conclusion, while induction is a bottom up approach that forms conclusions from the start of our premises, probability statement.
• Dewey outlines an explanation to the effect that the phenomenon to be explained, the explanandum, was expected by virtue of certain explanatory facts.
• Hempel identifies two explanatory facts in order to provide a valid explanation: particular facts that describe the real situation, contingent facts, and uniformities expressible in terms of general laws.
• Hempel’s deductive-nomological explanation, or covering law model, answers the question Why did the explanandum-phenomenon occur?
• In Hempel’s model, the explanans, or set of particular conditions and laws, is expected to cause the phenomenon.
• The explanandum, or phenomenon we want to explain, is covered by the laws in the explanans.
• Hempel argues that the warming of the cool air trapped under the hot tumblers would constitute a mere accidental antecedent rather than an explanatory factor for the growth of the bubbles, if were not for the gas laws, which connected the two events.
• In Hempel’s model, the most important part is the law, without which we do not have any explanatory power.
• A true deductive explanation is confirmed by the given evidence.
• A potential explanation is not confirmed by the given evidence.
• For a reliable and valid deductive nomological explanation, the explanandum is a logical consequence of the explanans.
• Explanans must contain general (universal) laws without which there is no specific explanation.
• Explanans must have empirical content, which can be empirically tested.
• The statement of the explanans must be true for the explanandum to be true.
• The statements of the explanans must be true for the explanandum to be true.
• In an inductive explanation, the reliability of the explanation depends on the degree of the probability expressed by the explanans.
• In a deductive nomological explanation, the explanandum is a logical consequence of the explanans.
• In a probabilistic explanation, the statements of the explanans must be true for the explanandum to be true.
• In a probabilistic explanation, the explanandum is not the logical consequence of the explanans but rather, the explanans makes the explanandum highly likely to occur.
• In a probabilistic explanation, the explanandum
• In a deductive nomological explanation, the event at stake is explained by reference to other events, with which the explanandum is connected by laws.
• The explanandum is not the logical consequence of the explanans but rather, the explanans makes the explanandum highly likely to occur.
• An inductive explanation shows only that the explanandum was to be expected with high probability, and perhaps with practical certainty.
• In a deductive nomological explanation, the statements of the explanans must be true for the explanandum to be true.
• The explanandum must contain general (statistical) laws, that make the explanandum highly probable.
• An inductive statistical model of explanation takes premises and draws probable conclusions based on those premises.
• In a probabilistic explanation, the explanandum must contain general (statistical) laws, that make the explanandum highly probable.
• In a probabilistic explanation, the reliability of the explanation depends on the degree of the probability expressed by the explanans.
• In science, there are also probabilistic laws that express a relationship between terms and not only universal/general laws.
• In an inductive statistical model of explanation, the explanandum is not the logical consequence of the explanans but rather, the explanans makes the explanandum highly likely to occur.
• In a probabilistic explanation, there is not a lawful connection between the premises and the conclusion, but if the premises are true, the conclusion will occur with more or less probability.