Lecture 10: Population, Urbanization, and the Environment

• Population growth rates:
• Reason for dramatic population growth

  Advances in healthcare, agricultural, industrial revolution in England and then European colonies (with white majorities)
• England, % of children who died before age 5:
• The strongest single cause of population growth was the drop in infant mortality rate
• In the 20th century, birthrates dropped in developed countries as life expectancy increased
• Malthusians


  Biological Determinists who believe humans will over-populate due to a biological urge to populate as much as possible but have a limited food supply
• Reverend Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)


  Believed population increases exponentially while food supply increases arithmetically, leading to overpopulation, poverty, and starvation
• Positive Checks


  Disease, starvation, war - leading to Malthusian Catastrophe
• Negative Checks


  Abstinence, restricting the poor from procreating
• Neo-Malthusians


  Similar to Malthusians but advocate for more negative checks "population control" (contraceptives, sex education)
• Wealth Flow Theory


  Cost of raising an average child (0-17) in Canada is around $213,000, a great deal of wealth flows from parent/s to child. Poorer children in "developing" countries cost around $16,500 to raise, so more children = economic security.
• 10% of Canadians want to remain childless, these tend to be well-educated, urban, non-religious
• Wealthy countries have much lower fertility rates
• Over-population is NOT the cause of poverty, poverty is the cause of overpopulation
• The carrying capacity regarding global food production is estimated at 11.2 Billion, which will not be hit until 2100 if at all
• We are likely over capacity as far as pollution and resource depletion is concerned already, but this is more a result of over-consumption and how/what we produce and consume than over-population
• Largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions

  • Food, especially meat Industry
  • Energy
  • Transportation
• Populations in wealthy countries impact the environment more per capita than those in poor countries
• Countries with highest population growth rates are the ones that use the least resources, while developed countries already use too many resources
• The main problem with sustainability is with countries that are rapidly becoming wealthy and consuming more (Brazil, China, India)
• We cannot afford the whole world to mimic the American way of life
• Options to address sustainability

  • Curb development of poorer countries
  • Curb population growth
  • Reduce consumption, resource extraction, pollution
• Curbing development of poorer countries is not a viable option as poverty causes desperation and leads to environmental impact anyway
• Population growth may not be as big a problem as consumption, the best way to curb population growth may be by promoting community development, urbanization, self-reliance
• Technological innovation alone cannot solve the problem of sustainability due to the Rebound Effect & Jevons' Paradox
• Solving the global climate crisis will require reason (understanding of the problem and its impacts), empathy (a felt responsibility to future generations and people far away who feel the impacts disproportionately), and fair play (working toward global equality, reducing environmental footprints of the wealthy while requiring rich nations to help fund poor nations to develop their economies in sustainable ways)
• Recent studies say we are in big trouble, with food production per capita already decreasing and greenhouse gasses we have already emitted committing us to significant further warming
• Option #3 Requires


  • Reason
  • Empathy
  • Equality (fair play)
• A recent (2012) UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) found that solving the global climate crisis will require
• Reason


  Understanding of the problem and its impacts
• Empathy


  A felt responsibility to future generations and people far away (and poor) who feel the impacts disproportionately
• Fair Play


  Working toward global equality, reducing environmental footprints of the wealthy while requiring rich nations to help fund poor nations to develop their economies in sustainable ways
• A most recent studies that summarized all of the climate science available say we are in big trouble
• Food production per capita was already decreasing
• Greenhouse gasses were being emitted twice as fast as oceans and forests can absorb them
• In 1972, human society used 85% of the regenerative capacity of the biosphere; in 2012 we used 100%
• By the middle of this century we will face apocalypse-like conditions
• We may have already gone past the point of no-return
• We have passed a tipping point in that we have triggered an unstoppable environmental change process
• Changes in climate since 1950 are "unprecedented over decades to millennia"