4.1 Natural increase as a component of population change

• Factors affecting levels of fertility

  Social - Some societies (e.g. Africa) traditions demand high rates of reproduction. Education of women is key to lowering fertility.

  
  

  Economic - In poor countries children are seen as an economic asset. In developed countries, they are an extra expense and a potential economic hindrance.

  
  

  Political - There are several examples of governments trying to control the birth rate of children (China) for several reasons.
• Factors affecting mortality

  DR is heavily influenced by the age structure of a pop.

  
  

  UK DR is 9/1000 but Brazil is 6/1000 despite UK life expectancy being 7 years higher - due to Brazil having a smaller elderly pop. etc.
• Causes of death

  Infectious and parasitic diseases account for over 40% of all deaths.

  
  

  Diseases like TB and cholera spread easily in overcrowded spaces with poor hygiene.

  
  

  Limited access to health care worsens the effects of minor illnesses in poorer and remote parts of the world.

  
  

  In rich countries, heart disease and cancer as the biggest killers.
• Decline in fertility

  UN believed global population would peak at 9.2 billion in 2050.

  
  

  FR has fallen faster than expected in certain areas.

  
  

  2.1 is replacement FR yet 87 countries have an FR lower.
• Infant Mortality

  Africa has the highest rate at 76 / 1000 born.

  
  

  Europe and NA have lowest rate at 6 / 1000 born.

  
  

  Correlations between quality and access to healthcare and development level.
• Life Expectancy

  Africa has lowest at 55yrs on average.

  
  

  The highest by region was NA at 78yrs.

  
  

  Range between rich and poor has narrowed significantly in most countries in last 50yrs.

  
  

  AIDS has led to a decrease in LE in some sub-Saharan African countries.
• Interpretations of age/sex pyramids

  
• Problems with age/sex pyramids

  Doesn't account for migration - Qatar has an enormous section of young male adults which leads to a unique shape.

  
  

  Areas with strong rural-urban migration would show a distinct lack of working age people.
• Sex ratio


  The number of males per 100 females in the population.

  
  

  Male births consistently exceed female births due to a combination of biological and social reasons.

  
  

  A report published in China in 2002 recorded 116 male births for every 100 females

  
  

  Parents engaged in infanticide to have a male child during the one child policy which was seen as a greater economic asset.
• Dependency Ratio


  The number of people under age 15 and over age 64 compared to the number of people active in the labor force.

  
  

  It is important in planning as it highlights the economically active portions of the population.
• What are the 6 factors affecting fertility?

  - education

  - government policy

  - religion

  - death rate

  - tradition

  - economic factors
• how does education affect fertility rates?

  - The emancipation of women has given them an opportunity to increase their literacy rates by attending education.

  - knowledge of birth control has increased, so contraception is used

  - more opportunity for employment outside the family home and more choice of lifestyle - may not have the time or facilities for a child.
• how does government policy affect fertility rates

  - pro-natalist and anti-natalist policies alter fertility rates

  - China's one child policy has been successful in reducing fertility rates.

  - Russia is adopting policies to boost fertility in order to combat a future where the population will age and decline in number.
• how does religion affect fertility rates?

  - some religions are against birth control methods

  - e.g. both Islam and Roman Catholic Christianity oppose the use of artificial birth control
• how does death rate affect fertility rates?

  - in LIC's, fertility rate is often high to compensate for the high IMRs, e.g. Niger 7.1

  - improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and diet can reduce infant mortality and therefore reduce the need to have so many children as security for the future.
• how does tradition affect fertility rates?

  - in some cases there is cultural expectation to have large families

  - this tradition often overrides a woman's' desire to stop childbearing.

  - another tradition that fosters large families is the expectation that women will marry a an early age and immediately have children
• how do economic factors affect fertility rates?

  In LICs children are viewed as an economic asset:

  - they can work on the family farm or family workshop

  - they can be sent to work in factories from an early age

  - they can support their parents in old age

  
  

  In NICs and HICs children are an economic liability:

  - employment laws and secondary schooling mean that parents cant send their children to work but they still have to clothe, feed, and care for them.

  - pensions mean that parents do not heavily rely on their children to support them in old age
• define birth rate


  The number of live births per 1000 of the population per year
• define mortality rate


  The number of deaths per 1000 of the population per year
• define total fertility rate

  the average number of children a woman will birth throughout her life
• define infant mortality rate

  the number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1000 live births in a given year
• what is a natural increase rate?


  the percentage change in a year, calculated by the birth rate subtracted by the death rate
• what are the 9 factors affecting mortality rate?

  - non-communicable diseases

  - medical infrastructure

  - poverty

  - injury-related illnesses

  - infant mortality

  - economic development

  - public pensions/healthcare

  - HIV/AIDS

  - ageing population
• how do non-communicable diseases affect mortality rate?

  - they result from social conditions

  - cancers/heart diseases common in HICs

  - causes by less activity, bad diet, alcohol/tobacco

  - can lead to death
• how does medical infrastructure affect mortality rate?

  - areas with a shortage of medical facilities and trained medial staff have high death rates

  - a lack of hospitals and clinics means that people have to rely on traditional methods when they get ill

  - these do not have success rates comparable to modern medicines and modern medical techniques
• how does poverty affect mortality rate?

  - people in MICs and LICs are more likely to die young than people in HICs

  - MICs and LICs tend to have higher death rates

  - poverty exacerbates most of the other factors - e.g. poor sanitation, poor diet, lack of medical care, etc.
• how do injury-related illnesses affect mortality rate?

  - especially young adults

  - road traffic accidents

  - war casualties

  - industrial/repetitive strain injuries

  - all lead to higher death rate
• how does infant mortality affect mortality rate?

  areas with high infant mortality have high mortality rates overall
• how does economic development affect mortality rate?

  - mortality rates fall as a country gets richer

  - increase in national wealth can lead to improvements in sanitation and healthcare

  - simple measures like the use of soap when washing can help reduce the spread of disease.

  - improvements in diet - food security

  - increased level of education - people better understand disease and its causes
• how does public pensions and healthcare affect mortality rate?

  - increase in the level of care for the elderly

  - lowers the death rate
• how does HIV/AIDS affect mortality rate?

  - especially in sub-Saharan Africa

  - In Botswana, 25% of the population aged 15-49 is HIV positive
• how does an ageing population affect mortality rate?

  - death rates rise with an increasing proportion of old people

  - vulnerable to degenerative diseases
• what is the dependency ratio?

  - the proportion of those economically active to those who are dependents (young and old)

  - a high dependency ratio indicates there are a high proportion of dependents in the population compared to the economically active

  - high dependency usually indicate that there is pressure on the working population, as there are more people to provide for, and less people providing.
• How do you calculate dependency ration?

  number of dependents (young+old) / working population (ages 15/16 to 60/64)

  
  

  x 100
• why would dependency ratio vary within a country?

  - difference between rural and urban areas (asset or liability)

  - retirement areas will attract older dependents

  - variation in healthcare - where it is poor, there will be a high IMR

  - type of activity - industrial areas may have less dependents and more workers

  - university towns - may have more young dependents
• what are the causes of a youthful population?

  - high birth rate - lack of family planning and contraception, high infant mortality

  - migration

  - tradition

  - lack of care for old dependents leads to a high death rate among that age group
• what are the advantages of a youthful population?

  - lower death rate

  - IT literate and educated population

  - large future market
• what are the disadvantages of a youthful population?

  - overabundance of future workers may result in unemployment

  - cost of childcare and child benefit is high

  - short term worker shortage (maternity/paternity leave)

  - higher healthcare costs

  - spending diverted from other uses
• what are the solutions to a youthful population?

  - anti-natalist policies (e.g. one child) = reduce fertility rates

  - privatised education and healthcare

  - increased immigration of middle aged - restricted immigration

  - removed child benefits

  - greater care of old dependents to reduce elderly death rates
• what are the causes of an ageing population?

  - good medical care

  - good diet and sanitation

  - good water supply and hygiene

  - emancipation of women = less children

  - increasing cost of children

  - emigration of economically active